Wednesday, June 19, 2013

A day ahead of vagaries' forecasted date, BB-4 Forms on Saturday  off the Orissa coast...initially at 998 mb..

For Nagpur Readers..Lokmat Times Nagpur Shares my views here.."Monsoon Takes a Break..."

City wise outlook for  Friday 21st/Saturday 22nd/Sunday 23rd June :

Mumbai: Friday;
Sunny Spells. A few sharp showers post noon. Average rain amount: 20 mms.
Saturday: Cloudy with some bright periods. Several parts will see occasional sharp showers of 10/15 minutes durations in the day amounting to around 25 mms.
Sunday: Partly cloudy interrupted by brief sharp shower or two. Rain amount around 20 mms.

Some of the Outer townships
will have rain amounting to 45-55 mms /day Saturday and Sunday.Sunday may be accompanied by thunder.

Pune: Friday/Saturday/Sunday:
Partly cloudy. A shower or two in some parts. Amounts will be 5-10 mms/day.Day temperature around 29/30c.

Surat: Frequent showers on Saturday amounting to 25-30 mms. Decrease on Sunday. But showes will be occuring and rain amount will be 15-20 mms.Pleasant day around 30/31c.

Nagpur: after a hot Saturday, the evening can see a heavy thundershower, amounting to 30-35 mms. Increased rainfall on Sunday, with very cloudy sky.
Heavy thunderstorms on Sunday will dump around 50 mms of rain by evening
Monday willl see good rainfall.

Delhi NCR: Friday/Saturday/Sunday will see scattred clouds and hot day. With west winds blowing, the day's hugh will be 38/39c. Maybe touching 40c in some regions.Thundery development possible on Sunday evening.

Karachi: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy and windy . Though day's will be around 34c, heat index high at 38/40c. Light rain possible on Saturday night /Sunday.

Sukkur will be dry and hot. Day temperatures rising to 45c !

Kathmandu: Heavy Thunderstorm likely on Friday night. Saturday overnight rains may add up to 35-40 mms. Saturday and Sunday, otherwise, Normal evening thundershowers possible on the odd day . Between 5-10 mms precipitation.

All India Actual SWM Performance from 1st June -19th June 2013: 130.7 mm, Normal: 84.7 mm and Departure: +54% (last year to date -26%).. June Month normal total rain 173 mms.
State Capitals of IndiaRain till June 20th 2013..Another Graphics by Rohit Aroskar..see Stats ad Analysis Page

The Sub_Continent Expectations from Thursday 20th June till Sunday 23rd June:

1. An UAC forming around the Andaman Islands in the Bay will travel NW. Will, mostly, descend to sea level on Sunday 23rd, and BB-4 will be off the Orissa coast.
Another UAC forms off the TN coast, but merges in the trough (formed by the UAC) in the Bay.
Thursday Report: UAC forms over Bay located NW of Andaman Islands.

2.The west coast trough will persist as a weak trough.The Northern end of the trough is supported by an Upper Air trough in the Sea. Some spill over showers in Saurashtra. 
Possibly, a vortex may form for a couple of days off the Karnataka coast on the weekend.Heavy rains ( 40-100 mms) in Coastal Karnataka (weekend). Variable (10-40 mms) rainfall along rest of west coastline. Average/Below average rainfall in interior Mah.and Karnataka.

3. A weak low forms in the Arabian Sea off the Oman Coast on Thursday 19th. It imminently moves inland. Some light rains in Eastern Oman.
Thursday Report: Weak low moving inland into Southern Oman
The resultant SW winds into SE Sindh may bring light rains to SE Sindh region and corresponding coast. 

4.The Monsoon axis runs along the Himalayan foothills. Almost merging into Nepal on Friday.Heavy rains in Nepal. 
The extended eastern arm remains weak. Maybe just extending to Meghalaya by Saturday.Heavy rains in Northern Bangladesh and Meghalaya.
Almost dry and no meaningful rains in NW India and most of Pakistan. SWM remains stationary.

City specific forecasts if required.

SWM monsoon rainfall .. Till 19th June 2013..
Konkan , Ghats and some parts of Madhya Maharahtra. Pictorial composition by Rohit Aroskar....see Stat and Analysis Page 

Venus’ Winds Are Mysteriously Speeding Up to....
400 km/h (250 mph) in 2012. That’s nearly double the wind speeds found in a category 4 hurricane here on Earth!...See Space News Page

Lake Levels of water supply to Mumbai and General Maharashtra Position..See Mumbai Page


salil said...

Can you give forecast for Mumbai

Nimish Thaker said...

Mumbai forecast please. I guess it is always needed!! :-)

Abhijit Modak said...

Sir, now no winds, sweaty and muggy here .
So are we going to see just localized
rain or TS till weekend !

Karan Kumbhar said...

sir wen is rain expected to increase over interior maharashtra ??

Unknown said...

so how much is the orissa UAC going to benefit kol sir .?

Neeraj said...

Western Nepal and Adjoining Indian state of UttaraKhand have been very heavily hit by the fury of Monsoon.

This trough, is it already over nepal or will be over here only on friday ? How much rain can be expected - in western, central and eastern nepal - and for how many days ?

Vinod Desai said...

Hello sir,
How does coming weekend look for lonavala as we are planning trip there.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
kaushik nayak said...

Nilesh Ladhad said...

dont believe world bank. they have their own agenda. unpredictable nature has its own beauy.

Nimish Thaker said...

Rains look like on the verge of picking up for the day here in Mumbai. At Andheri, we are seeing on and off showers and the sky has now become overcast.

Abhijit Modak said...

Wow.After long 44hrs, continues medium to heavy rain here in Badlapur for last 1 and half hour.

Unknown said...

Continues rain here in Dombivli for last 1hr with varying in rainfall intensity-light.medium & sumtime heavy.

Rajesh said...

Karan: Which region of int. Mah. adhya Mah will have decrease till Monday at least.

Neeraj: More rains, heavy for Central and Eastern Nepal from 23rd..for 3 days at least. Mountainous regions need be carefull.

Kaushik Nayak/Nilesh: Can you spare some time and go thru the so called "Global Warming" articles of vagaries ? They are on the Archives Page.

Rajesh said...

Cmdr Potey: As mentioned previously, Akola district alongwith Aurangabad dist weather comes up in Lokmat evry Friday and Monday. See here:

Vinod: Lonaval will be cloudy. Sunny intervals will make it enjoyable. A few sharp passing showers in parts.But enjoyable overall as rain intensity managable and less.

Unknown said...

Rajeshbhai, Thanks for the Lokmat update. It is precise and very useful....Potey

Anonymous said...

Rajesh Sir,
Nagpur hot and humid ......... as no meaningfull rains from Monday. Any rains for Nagpur this week.
- Amit

Abhijit Modak said...

Thane & Raigad District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today (21-06-2013) minimum 20mm:

Thane 27
Kalyan 61
Murbad 35
Bhivandi 26
Wada 66
Shahapur 46.6
Dahanu 21.9
Barvi lake 47
Ulhasnagar 21.4
Vikramgadh 30

Raigad District :

Karjat 30.9
Khalapur 50
Mahad 41.2
Mangaon 39
Poladpur 27
Murud 26
Shriwardhan 27
Mahasala 30.4
Tala 52

Rajesh said...

Abhijit: Thanks for the Thane and Raigadh update. Seems ok, as vagaries had forecasted 10-40 mms for Konkan regions.

Nimish Thaker said...

Rajeshbhai, what is the forecast for area around Kedarnath? My family is still stuck there close to Gaurikund awaiting to be rescued and everybody is now worried about what turn the weather will take. The last 2-3 days were rain free.

In any case due to low clouds and visibility the air operations from Dehradun have been suspended some time back.

Anonymous said...

Rajesh Sir,
Thanks for the update.

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur having medium rains sometimes heavy with thundering from last 2hrs.

Unknown said...

Dombivli having Light rains sometimes medium to heavy with no thundering from last 1hrs.Also quite cool here.

Nilesh Ladhad said...


Unknown said...

Rain intensity is increasing in Vasai from moderate to heavy and now last 25 mins we had very heavy shower, with thick cloud cover throughout the day.

Unknown said...

Heavy Rains started at dombivli at 3:52pm & then after very heavy rains starting at 3:58pm & still continuing with visibility less than a 100mts.

Abhijit Modak said...

Almost non - stop rain lashes Badlapur today from 12.30pm to 5.30pm with intensity varying from heavy to medium to light consistently & thundering also in between. So overall an nice cool day here.

Rajesh said...

NT: Utterakhand > 3 days weather should be good and almost clear. Almost as this is mountain region, so clouds can from locally. But increasing rains from 25th. To some extent heavy in some regions.

Unknown said...


Atul P Naik said...

Rajeshbhai, what about Goa? We had a bright sunny day today on this solstice day and now in the night the moonlight is almost drowning out Saturn and stars with not a cloud in sight! Is this the break in monsoon?

Atul P Naik said...

Rajeshbhai, what about Goa? We had a bright sunny day today on this solstice day and now in the night the moonlight is almost drowning out Saturn and stars with not a cloud in sight! Is this the break in monsoon?

Unknown said...


Nimish Thaker said...

AN APPEAL: Does any of the readers have any idea on whom / how to reach out / communicate in Phata, Uttarakhand? We have been informed today that 2 of my family members have been airlifted from Gaurikund and have been taken to Phata.

My calls to the Control Room at Rudraprayag have revealed that they may be taken to Rishikesh but no one is sure. I am not even sure if my family members are there at Phata or not.

While we are trying to find a way to get some info, I just thought to check if anyone on the blog may have some information that might help.

Nimish Thaker said...

All, we have been able to establish contact with my uncle at Guptkashi. We understand that all 9 members are safe but have been brought to different locations (Phata, Gocher and Guptkashi) by IAF.

Huge relief and celebrations in my family.

Abhijit, thanks a lot for your help in trying to reach out to as many people. Really Appreciate it.

Will get to know exactly what happened that night once they land back in Mumbai.

Abhijit Modak said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit Modak said...

@ NT. Great news to hear as contact establishes with your family members. Congrats..

And it's our duty to help in any possible ways when any disaster takes place.

Rajesh said...

NT: Glad to hear all is well and safe. Vagarians had put up your request on fb vagaries page and got several responses...thank God all ok.

emkay said...

Those ranting about how social media is bad etc should realize how helpful it is during such times. Congrats NT

Unknown said...

Good to hear that everything is fine NT. thank God for it.

Unknown said...

Missing the comments of our friend from the part of this world that receives rains like waterfalls ( Navi Mumbai)No sun.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

thunder shower for half an hour yesterday evening. Now cloudy

Unknown said...

Extremely heavy raining in dombivli for past 10 mins.

Nimish Thaker said...

Dear Rajeshbhai, Abhijit, Emkay, Sam and all the Vagarians, me and my family would like to express our heartfelt thanks to all of you for your wishes and all the help in regards to reaching out to people through FB and other Social Media.

Emkay, you are right, Social Media has a lot of utility especially in times when one looks at reaching out to as many people. We have seen examples of revolutions through the Social Media in recent times.

Once again, thank you to all of you.

Unknown said...

NT all of us ,what we did was' as a part of vagaries family.

Strong Western Disturbance is seen affecting the country and the subcontinent. Heavy rain and snow reported from Himalayas, and rain/thunder...