Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Fastest to 2000 mm in last 5 years..?? See Answer on Pradeep's Page
Mumbai -Pune -Nashik triangle...from Rohit Aroskar...See Stats and Analysis Page

Vagaries' Monsoon Meeting has been arranged for Sunday 30th June at a venue to be decided in Thane...Meeting and Inter Action will be at 4 pm...All are requested to please make it convenient and attend...Await Venue Details...

Posted on Wednesday @ 00.30 am IST

1.      -BB-4 Situated on Tuesday Night in the Northern Chattisgarh and adjoining East Mp region. An UAC lies to the SW of this system, where maximum clouds are associated.
2.       -System likely to move N/NW and enter Southern Up. Consequently it will merge with the monsoon axis.
3.       -West Coast off shore trough persists in current strength.
4.      - Heaviest rainfalls  ( 70-120 mms) next 2 days will be concentrated in the Central Up (Lucknow) area, Northern Bihar and Northern West Bengal.
5.      - Moderate  (30-70 mms) heavy rains along west coast of India, Southern regions of Uttarakhand.
6.      - Light to medium rains (10-30 mms) in West UP, Delhi NCR, Interior Maharashtra, Saurashtra , Gujarat Region and Kerala. 

Forecast for 2 days, Wednesday/Thursday:
Mumbai will get occasional showers, some heavy, but not persistent. Rainfall next 2 days will be around 30 mms /day (average).
Outer townships will have heavy passing showers, with bright intervals at times.

Pune: Cool cloudy days, at around 27c. Decrease in rainfall next 2 days. Light rains in some parts and 5-7 mms/day.

Delhi NCR: Rain chances decrease as BB-4 curves More towards North, and merges with the axis and pushes it Northwards by Thursday. However, isolated thundery developments are possible, with precipitation in some parts of NCR. Where it rains, precipitation could amount to around 10 mms. More chances on Wednesday, as clouding and associated UAC will dissolve in the Northern MP region. Northern MP and adjoining Rajasthan (Jaipur) can get the isolated Thunder storm , and the odd one could travel to NCR (Wednesday).

Surat: An increase in rainfall on Wednesday could bring 15-20 mms in form of some sharp showers. Thursday also will get passing showers amounting to 10-15 mms.

Chennai: Chances of thunder and rain in some parts of Chennai on Wednesday. Measurable amount would be about 7- 10 mms


emkay said...

Rajeshbhai, a flash forecast required, seems weather is closing in suddenly

Unknown said...

Rajesh sir,looks like rain intensity might pick up again in Mumbai by evening

Abhijit Modak said...

Nagpur records 187.4mm rain ending
8.30am today for past 24hrs. In that
99mm fallen between 8.30pm to
11.30pm yesterday.

Neeraj said...

What's the prospect for Nepal; next few days ? not much rain in Kathmandu for the past few days - except occasional heavy outburst lasting 10-20 mins; or some night time rain amounting to around 10 mms at times - but nothing more.

Rajesh said...

Neeraj: See increase in rain for Wed/Thursday as BB-4 merges in Southern UP ...Central Nepal may see more rain in Southern regions

Sam: I would stick to the occasional showers in the day, normal (10-15 mins) duration till Thursday...justifying since system moves away...and i have given some increase towards maybe your calculations may be correct

Unknown said...

Thanks Rajesh sir , i also felt the same as 'you have predicted that the rain will creep up north' towards Mumbai might benefit in this situation (again it depends totally on the cloud formation and movement)

Unknown said...

Currently as predicted by sir, showers are going on since morning with occasional heavy one, without any Vasai.

Neeraj said...

Ok rajesh sir. most forecast sites not predicting much rain for kathmandu for the next seven days or so - but i guess, we can expect some rain when the low pressure area merges with the axis and the axis shifts north.

Rajesh said...

Sam: please make it possible to attend our meet, all eager to meet you..

Unknown said...

Rajesh sir , have a query,of what i observed' in the morning today at around 8.30 am there was thick black cloud cover which started to circulate round and round and then the wind also suddenly changed from SW-- NE direction and the cloud started to return back in a westerly direction, as it usually happens when we have thunderstorms coming from easterly direction from the (GHATS).And the rain drops were really thick fat which lasted for nearly 3 mins.what could be the reason?

Unknown said...

Yes sir this time definitely i will make up for the meeting.

Unknown said...

I am sorry sir, if my question sounds too childish.

Unknown said...

Mumbai all time highest rainfall for June is 1037.1 in the year 1971 .... Let's see if it gets broken ...

Abhijit Modak said...

Konkan division rainfall ending 8.30am today

Thane District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today (26-06-2013) minimum 20mm :

Thane 41
Kalyan 53
Murbad 28
Bhivandi 20
Vasai 81
Dahanu 23.7
Palghar 86.4
Javahar 47
Mokhada 41.6
Ulhasnagar 44
Ambernath 32
Vikramgadh 50

Raigad District rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today (26-06-2013) :

Alibaug 40
Panvel 60
Karjat 46
Khalapur 55
Uran 82
Sudhagad 38
Pen 80.4
Mahad 55
Mangaon 66
Roha 75.2
Poladpur 75
Murud 15
Shriwardhan 32
Mahasala 91.2
Tala 61

Ratnagiri district rainfall in mm till 8.30am today(26-06-2013)

Chiplun 67
Dapoli 28.4
Khed 49
Gughagar 62
Mandangad 76
Ratnagiri 56.8
Sangameshwar 90.8
Rajapur 64
Lanja 100.8

Sindhudurg district rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today(26-06-2013)

Devgad 20
Malwan 10
Sawantwadi 49
Vengurla 21
Kankawali 76
Kudal 24
Vaibhavwadi 85
Dodamarg 38

Abhijit Modak said...

Two more outer townships around Mumbai joins the 1000mm list today for SWM 2013.

Total June Rainfall till today:

Kalyan 1000mm
Palghar 1083.2mm

Anonymous said...

Thanks Rajesh Sir and Abhijit
The intensity of the rains was furious in the evening and night. What is the record rainfall for Nagpur in a day.

Unknown said...

rain intensity likely to subside in Nagpur , as the system moves away.

Unknown said...


Atul P Naik said...

Would have loved to attend the Vagaries meeting on June 30th. Unfortunately too short a notice to make my travel plans!

Atul P Naik said...

First to make the 1000 mm league from Goa is Valpoi - 1010.9 mm, at the base of the western ghats in west Goa (45 Kms from Panjim). Pernem (32 Kms from Panjim)on the North Goa border at 934.8 mm is not far behind. But Panjim, whose reading is often published as Goa reading is only 653 mm as of June 26, 2013!

Pradeep said...

Wow. Chennai rain on wednesday. After many days i am seeing this in Vagaries

anant said...

Pradeep, your zeal and effort in providing us updates is commendable

Rajesh said...

Surat gets more than the increase estimated...64 mms till 8.30 pm Wednesday

Abhijit Modak said...

@ SSET. Vagaries Monsoon meeting on Sunday. As yourself residing in Navi Mumbai now, so please try to manage & attend an vagaries meeting this time..

We would be glad to meet you.. :)

Unknown said...

AS RAJESH sir had predicted, Vasai had a wet day yesterday, with continous light rain with intermittent heavy spell's , until evening.but i think Mumbai was left out.

Abhijit Modak said...

Rain figures around Mumbai outer townships in mm ending 8.30am today(27.06.2013)

Thane 26
Kalyan 31
Murbad 47
Bhivandi 22
Vasai 24
Shahapur 29
Ulhasnagar 42.6
Ambernath 48
Panvel 37
Karjat 21

Rajesh said...

sam: would like you to come to meeting. Many keen to interact. Please e mail me ..

Nimish Thaker said...

Rajeshbhai, I am in Bangalore on Sunday and most of the coming week so unfortunately will miss this gathering as well.

Unknown said...

i am trying my level best rajesh sir.

Avtansh said...

I will be traveling and out of Mumbai and hence, unfortunately, will be unable to attend the meeting again :(

Unknown said...

looks like the following week might turn out to be wet again for the west coast, because the system from UP is likely to track downwards into MAH.THINGS WILL BE CLEAR BY TUESDAY

Final Figures for Mumbai Monsoon 2023 Santacruz 2978 mm ( 117.2 ") Colaba 2398 mms ( 94.5") Ending on good note with Lakes at 99.3...