Synoptic Situation as on Tuesday Night (11th June)
1. The 200 hpa jet streams have become westerlies in the absolute North of the sub continent.This indicates an easier movement of systems from the Bay to move inland without any sort of "resistance."
2. The UAC in Northern most regions of India and Pakistan are attracting SE winds interaction with SW winds. Along with the heated lands, it has brought about massive clouds and thunderstorms. Rawalpindi had a severe dust storm with rain on Tuesday evening.
3.The trough at the 700 hpa level will strengthen in the NWI and Northern India regions in the next few days. Due to resistance from 850 hpa level in Central India (the UAC), the upper air trough (700 hpa) will precipitate thunder showers some severe, along the plains of UP, Haryana and the foothills of Himalayas till Saturday 15th June. (SWM advance could be announced)
4.Today's newly formed UAC in the Bay will now, in all probability track W/NW and move along the Central Indian regions.From Thursday 13th June, precipitation will move westwards thru Orissa and Chattisgarh.
By Sunday 16th June, we may see precipitation in Gujarat and west coast of India (details later as we approach the dates), and move into Coastal Sindh and Karachi early next week.
Southern and interior peninsula may see a relatively "less rainfall" period till Monday 17th.
We will monitor this daily, and On Thursday, vagaries will put up another detailed forecast schedule...
Mumbai: Rainfall remaining weak till Saturday. Increase in rains from Saturday.
Delhi NCR: Some showers on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Rainfall in 24 hrs period around 15 -20 mms.
Chennai generally cloudy.
Kolkata chances of Thundershower in some parts on Thursday.Major rainfall still evasive in Bengal.
Much Awaited SWM Toppers list as on 10th June. On Stats and Analysis Page....from Pradeep (of-course)