Friday, December 23, 2011

A low formed in the Bay labelled 92B has moved NW, and is east Sri Lanka at 6.6N and 85E.
At 1004 mb pressure as on Friday night, it is having winds at core of 15-20 knts.

The Northern segment of the system is enriched with good clouding due to the moistured laden NE monsoon winds hitting the system.With SST at 27c, it may just about hold on.

Tracking path expected is NW, and deepening to level 1000 mb initially by Sunday, and then to depression level of 998 mb by Monday,system can cross the T.N.coast by Monday. Very heavy rains expected as a result in Eastern parts of the Island and Southern T.N.from Saturday night.

Progressive increase in preciipitation on Sunday on entire T.N. coastline and Southern interior T.N.Rainfall in excess of 100 mms possible in some places along T.N. coast on Sunday/Monday.
Upto 40-50 mms of rain possible in Chennai on Monday and Tuesday.
Gusty winds of 35 kmph likely along South T.N. Coast.

A strong upper air (500 hpa level) Sw wind has brought alto-cumulus clouding across the stretch from South Konkan thru Vidarbha and into M.P.on Friday. This should be temporary and vanish by Sunday, but bring about a rise in night temperatures in Vidarbha.

A mild W.D. is moving into the Northern regions of the sub-continent.


Pavan said...

If we observe the past track i thnk ths low may move towards northeast ie, towards myanmar or b'desh leading to cold wave like situatin n westrn n nw india, sir wat do u say

Shitij said...

As per the map this system will reach Arabian sea on wed. After reaching Arabian sea in which direction this system will move? and whether this system will intensify in Arabian sea?

Rajesh said...

Shitij/Pavan: I feel system (BB-12) should move as per track shown in vagaries map. It will fizzle out around the last position shown on map.

  October 5th.. Dussehra wishes to all Vagaries Readers  It now seems we may have to neglect the weak BB 14 and concentrate on this new Low....