vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years
For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
reports from North Kerala - incessant heavy rains. seems they will be fed up monsoon quickly
RajeshJust a query though. Why your date of monsoon confirmation in delayed by a day or 2? IMD has already declared monsoon in GOA where as your advance is expected on Sat/Sun. Just aquery and by all means I follow your dates with more conviction.
so 20N means it will stop somewhere near mumbai then??or am i mistaken???So when will monsoon arrive in mumbai then??Any dates u can give...maybe 3 more days??
also another question is y is BOB so quiet??Is something wrong??
@emkay.Rain intensity should decrease in Kerala tom.@Vishal.for Goa, i have given my reason, waiting for OLR to fall in line. Always explained before advancing SWM the reason. Be it SW winds, OLR or the 200 jet streams. Following IMD norms. Have explained it that i am following IMD norms of advance.@ron. Mumbai is 19N. I think SWM will go till Dahanu.Bay is quietthis year ..no doubt. Several reasons, W.D.s, trough moving away (see last MW). Few more reasons, will elaborate on vagaries.
So IMD advances SWM tto veeengurrlaThai Met map shows offfshore LP north of Mumbai
-70 degrees cloud tops observed over Mumbai around 10:30 pm. Such cloud tops are usually associated with storm systems.
Cola & imd gfs predicting almost 40 ml rain in next 24 hrs for mumbai. Imd fortnightly forecast (which is probably the only good thing about IMD) also confirmed your point about halt in monsoon surge northward after 3-4 days but expecting 'good rains' till 17th june along west coast & northeastern states.
Latest Thai map (1000 IST) shows the LP completely gone !! ECMWF also has removed the LP. Invest 98A still exists in US Navy weather. All very confusing at this moment.Waiting for our weather guru to throw further light on the paradox
I think out of the projected 40 ml we might have got around 15 ml last night. And imd in their fortnightly forecast last night talked about UAC at mid-tropospheric level off karnataka coast moving north. In their morning update uac was at east central arabian sea off konkan coast. They avoided using word low since yesterday only used uac.
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