Tuesday, June 14, 2011

BB1, is likely to descend to seal level as a low pressure by tonite. Initially, at around 998 mb, it will form off the Orissa coast, with clouds in the southern and SW quadrant of the system.
Since a seasonal trough today runs from west to east, with its western end over Upper Sindh and running thru Rajasthan, U.P. and the eastern end into the system.

Normally, BB1 will track along this trough. Presuming the trough to remain in the same position, which it should, the low, on deepening into a well marked low by Thursday, will track into North M.P. and thence into U.P.

But, bearing in mind the clouding is in the south and SW of the centre of BB1, rainfall will be more in Eastern Vidharbha initially, and moving into east M.P. from Thursday/Friday. Similarly, the eastern end pf the trough will get active to precipitate heavy rains in the NE states, and presumably move SWM into more areas of the east and Nepal.
In line with BB1, west winds will be attracted towards the low on the west coast. Heavy rain along North Konkan accordingly from Thursday. Mumbai forecast put up yesterday remains intact !

As-1 is now out and over, done with. Precipitation is dying out off the Saurashtra coast. I understand there were traces of rain in Karachi yesterday. Dont think more can be expected from "ex-AS1"

Next update with forecast map tonite at 10.30 pm.

All India Toppers SWM Rainfall from June 1 to 12 - 2011. Compiled and sent by Pradeep. Thanks.
Rainfall in cm's (Min 50 cm)

Vadakara (Kerala) - 82
Piravom (Kerala) - 80
Kollur (Karnataka) - 78
Kottigehara (Karnataka) - 73
Devala (Tamil Nadu) - 71
Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 70
Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 68
Karipur AP (Kerala) - 69
Vaikom (Kerala) - 64
Agumbe (Karnataka) - 61
Bhagamandala (Karnataka) - 60
Gerosoppa (Karnataka) - 59
Kannur (Kerala) - 59
Ammathy (Karnataka) - 58
Sholayar (Tamilnadu) - 57
Vythri (Kerala) - 57
Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 57
Karkala (Karnataka) - 55
Honavar (Karnataka) - 55
Peermade (Kerala) - 54
Gorkhana (Karnataka) - 54
Ratnagiri (Maharashtra) - 53
Quilandy (Kerala) - 51
Kozhikode (Kerala) - 51
Chinnakallar (Tamilnadu) - 49
Shirali (Karnataka) - 49
Mumbai Santa Cruz (Maharashtra) - 48
Mangalore AP (Karnataka) - 48


Tyrone said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tyrone said...

Rajesh where can i see a pic of this trough depicted on a weather map........

Also there was no rain in KHI on our side i.e. the coast

Ron said...

acc to imd it has already formed...

Ron said...

just to clarify i am talking about the low pressure at bob

Anonymous said...

heavy rain in borivali since 4.30pm. but the santacruz airport "metar" does not indicate any such activity. just "haze". what about south mumbai?

sridhar said...

hi rajesh, heavy rains in thane as well ...would be grateful if you can expalain this phenomenon of heavy rains even when imd satellite does'nt show much cloud activity

NT said...

@Sridhar, the higher the cloud tops, the denser / brighter it will appear on the IMD satellite, in the same vein the lower the clouds the lighter it will appear. What you are seeing now in Thane / Borivali are rains due to low clouds and hence easier to miss on the IMD Radar, they would have shown up on the Doppler radar though. Also, these rains are due to the offshore trough being formed (back again post AS1) and will occur in bands (not large scale organized rains). Hence it may be raining heavily in Borivali but Bandra may be dry while South Mumbai may have a drizzle, even in Borivali it should taper down very soon (if not already)

RK said...

any chance of bb1 coming upto delhi?

sset said...

will thursday over Mumbai due to Bay low pressue be same as deadly AS1??? Can we have june average rainfall for last few years. Raining heavily over New Bombay. Thanks

Rajesh said...

@sset. Thu/fri rains should be around 40-50 mms per day. But much less than As1, when it poured 180 mms in Scruz and 103 mms at Colaba. I'll put up previous june figs.
@RK..i have my doubts abt BB1 reaching Delhi..

sridhar said...

thanks NT

Posted Tuesday Night: Tuesday evening scenario. Showing Monsoon Trough.  Erstwhile Gulab may re emerge in the sea off the Kutch /Sindh coast...