Thursday, June 16, 2011
BB1 has moved North! Much against expectations and deepened into a deep depression, at 984 mb, and crossed the West Bengal coast. According to the NRL site, it lies centred at 22.1N and 88.8E. Exact location seems at the India/Bangladesh border, on the Gangetic delta.
SYSTEM WILL CROSS OVER KOLKATTA TONITE. Very heavy rains expected.
Its northward track has prevented the mass inflow of rain clouds onto the Konkan coast on Thursday. Some infow from the west was expected if the system would have crossed land near the Orissa/Bengal coast.
But due to a Northwards diversion, we see good winds and clouds flow towards the west coast all along upto south Mah.150 kms south of Mumbai as on Thursday 10 pm.
Mumbai's expectation of rain showers on Thursday was thwarted. In an average expected normal situation, on the system crossing the coast at 22N, a westerly rush towards the system should bring rains to Mumbai on Friday.
1.-Now that the full scene has shifted a bit North, I think a North/NW track would carry this system along into Bihar, Jharkhand and U.P. FInally, after a couple of days station itself in the Northern trough. Resultantly, SWM could push into Nepal and U.P. This, I fear, might create a "break Monsoon" condition for the central/Western and Southern regions. Maybe from as early as Monday 20th/Tuesday 21st.(Does that ring a bell ?? Like we discussed in yesterday's Vagaries ? Weak MJO ?)
2.- BB1 could move West/NW, and track along the Chattisgarh-North M.P. route. This, on the other hand, this could enhance rainfall in the central regions of India,west coast and push SWM into M.P. and Chattisgarh.
In either situation , remember, the clouding and rain is in the SOUTHERN QUADRANT of the system.
Posted Tuesday Night: Tuesday evening scenario. Showing Monsoon Trough. Erstwhile Gulab may re emerge in the sea off the Kutch /Sindh coast...