Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Update on TC "Laila":
The latest position of TC Laila is 14.3N 81.2E, that is 150 Kms. North-East of Chennai.Now,that is the nearest it has got to Chennai,and with the track turning North,it should strike land near Machillipatinum by tonite.
Maximum winds speed at 65Knts,and a core pressure of 986 mb,"Laila"  maintains its Severe cyclone status.
But,after landfall, "Laila" is expected to weaken, and might not even reach the Orissa coast while tracking North-Eastwards.In fact,it is expected to dissipate within 72 hrs of landfall.
So,as Chennai starts clearing up from tomorrow evening,the brunt of the rains will be borne by coastal A.P,but not much penetrating in the interiors of the states.
Today,there was widespread rain in Tamil Nadu.Recording today morning, Chennai recieved 82 mms,Thiruvarur and Musiri 70 mms and various other stations between 30-50 mms.

After the "giant" dies down, and starts weakening,the south-west monsoon winds will re-organise in the Arabian Sea. The regular South-West monsoon moisture flow should start by the 22nd. of May,first into Sri lanka, followed by Kerala. As I discussed earliar,I expect this flow to start initially as a "rebound" to being subdued, and may last on for a few days on Kerala/Karnataka for the time being. The monsoon may take a small pause of 5/6 days at Karnataka coast.
TC 02A has also formed in thre Arabian Sea.But, it will have no effect on the Sub-Continent coasts.It will enter the Gulf of Aden.As this gulf is cooled by the Somali current, the TC should weaken rapidly.
Satellite image (10.30pm Wednessday) of both the systems either side of India.


Readings as on 19th. May: 
Hottest in Asia: Nawabshah (Pakistan) 49c.
Hottest in India: Akola (Maharashtra): 47.2c
Hottest Nights: Amraoti:33.8c, Chandrapur: 33.6c,Jodhpur: 33c,Khajuraho: 32.3c, Aurangabad: 32.2c,Jabalpur: 32c.(Now i'm not going below 32c).
Mumbai today, Colaba:34.8c, Santa Cruz:33.0c.

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