Thursday, May 13, 2010

Monsoon Watch-7
El-Nino Factor Over:
With all the major indicators now below El Niño thresholds, latest observations show that sea surface temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness over the Pacific have all returned to levels considered typical of neutral.
The tropical Pacific has continued to cool during May, with NINO indices all at neutral levels. The weekly SST anomaly map shows warm anomalies covering most of the equatorial Pacific.
Thus the El-Nino is over and done with ! This parameter need not be mentioned vis-a-vis the progress of the Monsoon now, and its impact, finished now, will not be discussed in our MW. Even the June short-rainfall danger, due to the El-Nino, seems to be over now.

MJO Indications:
Acoording to the Australian Bureau of Met. -"The active MJO is currently located near longitude 110 East, entering the Maritime Continent region.
The latest guidance suggests that the MJO event will slow as it moves into the Maritime Continent region, and begin to weaken in intensity over the coming week or two".
The majority of dynamical model MJO index forecasts indicate a weakening MJO signal during Week-2. Now translated,I presume it means less rain for the West Coast of India after May end.So,it means, the active MJO in the Arabian Sea will bring in the Monsoon by May end, to the South-Western Coast of India, and then the Eastward movement of the MJO will weaken the rains in the first week of June ?? I am not well versed with the MJO actions and resulting effects, so would not like to comment or forecast on this parameter.

The Heat Wave in Central India is intense,and with a high of 47.3c at Wardha, we have a whole lot of 45s, 46s in the Sub-Continent.The highest of 48c on Thursday,13th.May,in the region was at Nawabshah (Pakistan).This augers well for the forming of the seasonal low, now at 998 mb.(See IMD Maps).

News from our Partner Blog:
Britain Weather: "Weather forecasters record coldest May night since 1996" Read on Mark's blog.


anant said...

Has the bay scenario improved, i just checked i think the flows are getting organised. Do you think it will host a low post May 18.

Rajesh said...

The bay scene is improving..but a low ?? I doubt before 25th. at least..thats what i feel

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