Thursday, May 20, 2010

Update on "Laila".
Today,Thursday,cyclone 'Laila' has crossed the coast at Bapatla (A.P.) and weakened.Maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 45 KNOTS around the system centre. The core pressure is about  992hpa.
Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely.

Very heavy rainfall was recorded in Coastal A.P./North Coastal T.N. Some of the heaviest figures of rain (Cms) in the last 24 hrs:
Ongole and Achampet (Guntur dt ) recorded  extremely  heavy rainfall of 32 and 27 Centimetres respectively.
Narasapur 18, Ponneri (Tiruvallur dt) 17,Tada (Nellore dt) and Tanaku (West Godavari dt) 15 each, Sullurpet (Nellore dt) 14, Amalapuram (East Godavri dt) and Cholavaram (Tiruvallur dt) 13, Machilipatnam and Bhimavaram (West Godavari dt) 12 each, Chennai, Anna University (Chennai dt), Tamaraipakkam (Tiruvallur dt), Kaikalur and Avanigadda (both Krishna dt) and Kakinada 11 each. Several stations had between 5-10cms.

A senior scientist involved in tracking the cyclone said that the strong upper winds at an altitude of around 10 km were steering 'Laila' in a  Northerly direction.
Now on, it will graze the coast (I think I've used this word too often last 2 days, anyway...) and then there are signs of it re-emerging in northern Bay of Bengal over the weekend as a weak system (mentioned in previous blog).
There have been precedents of cyclones re-emerging after landfall and the movement of 'Laila' was not an unusual one.

Aila to Laila: Will the cyclone have any effect on the monsoon? FAQ on the blog.
Last year’s monsoon was severely weakened by both the El Nino effect as well as by cyclone Aila, which hit the Bay of Bengal just as the Monsoon was setting in.
This year brings its own difficult portents.
El Nino —  is not as strong as it was in 2009. As for Cyclone Laila  in the Bay of Bengal, we can only hope that it will dissipate before it can do any real damage.
We hope for no "damage" as  North India is suffering its hottest summer in a century and predictions of a normal monsoon had been most heartily welcomed.
Arabian Sea branch, as mentioned, I see the re-grouping of the south-west winds to monsoon speed and strenght in a couple of days. Then,a pause still seems to be a possibility.

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