Monday, May 17, 2010

Update on Bay System
Rightly said ! One of our readers has rightly said that the Bay has "bounced back." After sending negative signals throughout the last 1 month,in a rapid development, a low formed in the Bay on Sunday, and within 24hrs, now on Monday night, it is a deep depression. 
A deep depression yes, but the core pressure is at 1000 mb, and the wind speed at the centre is 30 knots.  
Now, the IMD forecasts it to move North-West, and deepen into a cyclonic storm, to cross the A.P. coast by the 20th.
JTWC estimates it to be a depression, and is still not declared its point of crossing the coast.
ECMRWF estimates a depression to move along the East coast, and cross the coast at Orissa.

I would personally go by that estimate. The said depression/deep depression would eventually move towards the A.P. coast till the 19th, and then graze the coast ,and cross maybe somewhere at the Orissa/ W.Bengal coast by the 23rd. That's my personal view point, and in weather, one can never be too sure or accurate. My reasoning for the system's "along the coast" movement is the W.D. moving in the Northern regions of the country. This W.D.aloft, can push the depression off course, and steer it into Orissa/ W.Bengal coast.
But things can appear and disappear in the weather mechanism within a day.
So if the W.D. vanishes.....things can be different. Therefore,alongwith paying attention to this depression, I would be focused on the W.D.s up North.
Resultantly, the Monsoon has moved into the middle Andaman regions. 
Now, we wait and watch for its further progress here.

For T.N. heavy rains will commence once this system approaches the coast. Then it all depends on its steering course.
For Kerala, heavy precipitation on Wednessday/Thursday, till the effect of the system is intact. Then again ...depends..? IMD may advance the Monsoon into Kerala during this period, but I woulds be cautious. If the system crosses into T.N.or A.P. and re-emerges into the Arabian Sea, it might just pull off the Monsoon energy Northwards or North-Westwards.
Situation is too fluid now..but will monitor, and update this blog frequently from tomorrow, at 4/6 hourly intervals.

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