Friday, June 29, 2012

Monsoon 2012

The All India SWM Performance in June 2012:

1. The progress of the SWM itself is behind schedule, and as of end June, covers only about half of India. Normally, it should cover almost complete NW India by end June. The comparison with the normally required progress is shown on the map below.

Reasons have been discussed many a times throughout the month in vagaries blogs. Break Monsoon situation, even before the monsoon sets in, resulting in No Systems form either bay or Arabian Sea.

The actual performance has been disapointing over all. Very crucial for agriculture and economy, as almost 55% of the arable land does not have irrigation facilities and depends on direct rainfall.

The Water storage for the country as a whole is 16% of the live capacity storage. 
And for maharashtra it is 13% of the capacity. 

June end region wise map shows the deficit and scanty regions, mostly due to non arrival of Monsoon there. Comparison with Vagaries' June forecast put up in early June also shown.

The June end deficit this year is -23%.
Previous years June end performance was: 2011: +11%   2010: -16%    2009: -54%     2008: +11% 

Cities figures for June will be discussed and compared with Forecast tomorrow, after taking rainfall details on 30th Morning.

Now what for July ? MJO showing positive signs...?? drafting blog now and will publish by tonite 10.30pm (IST)


Anonymous said...

Seems the current MJO phase might last for 20 days and might be weak

Viravanalluran said...

Dear Rajesh,
[1] Apart from reasons you mentioned, my opinion is that SWM Power source i.e Mascarene High is NOT continuous but broken into three entity with lesser strength. Thus it reduced the cross equatorial flow and the OFF SHORE trough in Arabian Sea is missing or less pronounced.
[2]The upper level Maximum [EASTERLY} winds at Chennai latitude is NOT perfect easterly.
[3] However the frequent formation of trough in East coast and UAC are indicating active Bay branch of SWM
[4] Even though the traditional Ganga Nagar Head Bay trough is visible no system formed in the bay to track along the line and thus to bring rainfall in land places.

Pavan said...

I was out of pune for last 10 days expecting that atleast the city wil receive 50mm rains but its only 7mm when we can expect rains here

Rohit said...

Back in Pune after longtime, but its getting scary with no rains. What does the month July-Aug-Sept hold for Pune in specific terms.

Rajesh said...

Viravanalluran: All points are correct and i agree.
As far as i know, the Mascarene High is always in 3 parts. It has 3 main high pressure zones from Africa to Australia.
Point No 2 anomaly happens and is due to weak MJo. Pressure at various stages are -ve in anomaly (see latest blog please).
Third point also correct may be due to stronger eastern end of the monsoon axis stuck in the North.
Systems are sort of ''discouraged" due to low activity .Result of no monsoon prpogation (weak MJO ?)
Thanks for your comments and views. Always appreciate your feedback.
Rohit: somewhat answered you in latest write up.
Rohit, i can give July estimate tomorrow.-:))

Rohit said...

Is it possible that Pune will face a drought situationthis year?

3rd December...... Cyclone Michaung...! Latest Synopsis : DVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE        ADT-Version 9.1 ...