Tuesday, June 05, 2012

A day beyond the original forecasted date of 3rd/4th June (by Vagaries in MW), With good rainfall for the 3rd day running, and favourable factors like OLR and depth of SW winds, the SouthWest Monsoon Moves into Kerala on the 5th. Check SWM advance Map on Current Weather Page. 

Amongst the rainfall in the State today: Ernakulam 67 mms, Kozhikode 58.6mms, Hosdurg 52mms, Vadakara 49 mms, Kudulu 47.4 mms, Quilandy 41.2 mms and Kannur 38.7 mms.
In the Western Ghats of Karnataka, Agumbe recieved 97 mms of rain. In coastal Karnataka, Karwar measured 63 mms and Mangalore 62 mms and Honavar 39 mms. Interiors were mainly devoid of rainfall. More to the North, Panjim Goa notched up 73 mms.

As a result, with more rains next 24 hrs, Monsoon can move into Coastal Karnataka by 6th night. 
Further push into Goa and South Konkan by the 8th, and Mumbai will get the Monsoon onset by the 12th/13th of June. Subsequently, SWM may stall beyond 20N (around Dahanu).

A weak MJO phase is forecasted in our seas from the 16th of June. Normally, a weak phase is expected to last between 14-21 days. 
Studying this event, and an anticipitated unfavourable OLR after 17th June, it seems the SWM will remain as a weak current in the regions where it has set in, and go into a "weaker" phase after the 16th of June. 

I do not foresee the SWM advancing beyond S.Gujarat Coast till the 20th at least. Further advance into MP and Gujarat Saurashtra can be after the 29th of June. 
Delhi could expect the SWM around the 30th June. 

Impetus into Pakistan Sindh region will be in the 1st week of July, with Karachi getting the pre monsoon showers in 1st week of July.

With the Bay almost silent, Southern Regions of Bangladesh may see a sudden slack in rains, and only the Northern most parts will get showers this week.

First hand reports of pre monsoon showers today (Tuesday Daytime) have been coming in from Mahableshwar, Ratnagiri, Goa, Kolhapur and Chiplun. A very hot and stuffy(record breaking)night for Mah. tonite (Tuesday nite).

Mumbai will get its pre-monsoon showers on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Rain amount could be around 7-10 mms. Day will be warm and humid at 35c with the minimum on Wednesday morning at 30c. (I have mentioned earlier, though there are no records fo highest minimums available, my records show 30c as the highest minimum ever for Mumbai). 

Panvel also may recieve its much needed relief showers on Wednesday afternoon. With gusty winds, i expect a heavy shower in some areas. Minimum in Panvel on Wednesday night will be 26c.

Pune too will get thundershowers by afternoon, and could measure upto 20 mms of rain.

Orissa was HOT today!
Bhubaneshwar has set an absolute record on Tuesday, 5th June 2012, by recording 46.7c. Its an all time high for the capital of Orissa, the previous being 46.5c in 1972 (22 May). Balasore reached 46.0c. 
In neighbouring AP. Gannavaram was 46.1c.


sset said...

IS Andhra Pradesh Hottest place in India? temperatures touched 49-48 degrees. Same happened last year. Drought persists this year then it is disaster.

A total of 30 people died of heat wave in Andhra Pradesh on Sunday, taking the toll in the state to over 100.

D Sivananda Pai, Director National Climate Centre and lead forecaster for monsoon admitted that the monsoonal flows were not strong enough to bring showers to the peninsular region and initially the rains would be confined to the west coast.

Meanwhile Maharashtra seems to get rains ahead of time!!Mumbai in clouds (rainest city of India)

junaid said...

a typo error i guess monsoon may get stalled u mentioned 10 N instead of 20 N

Rajesh said...

junaid: Yes a typo error, thanks..correcetd.
sset: AP is the hottest in India this summer. I had put up some real time temps of AP and they were really high with 47.4c and the like. And now nearby Orissa is topping it !

Ron said...

drizzled in the night at deonar

junaid said...

it was continously drizzling in the night at panvel!!!the air is bearing a heavy scent of dust !!!even now it is drizzling lightly,,,nd no sign of sun

Amit Tare said...

Hello Rajesh,
You have not mentioned anything about Nagpur. Probably as per your forecast it seems Nagpur will get rains only after 20th June.

svt said...

Even Dadar got early morning drizzle. Hoping that we get thunderstorm in the evening. :)

Shitij said...

Tropical cyclone 20 has formed over south indian ocean. Whether this cyclone can stop the further progress of monsoon? what's your opinion Rajesh sir.

junaid said...

@rajesh why is ths rain being termed as premonsoon????wen it has all the characteristics of monsoon rain???the cloud movement is from S-SW nd not from east!!

Rajesh said...

shitij: Infact, if this cycone crosses the equator, it could help. But it will not cross as the winds become perpendicular.
junaid: just getting SW clouds is not monsoon. Other parameters must be adhered to. Sw rais can come in March also.
In fact, initially, thunder clouds will really come in from the East.

Cyclone Michaung : The strongest December cyclone in north India Ocean after 2016

Based on JTWC data, with a wind speed of 60 knots, Cyclone Michaung is the strongest December cyclone in the north Indian Ocean (including b...