Saturday, June 02, 2012

Firstly, reports of drizzles from some parts of Mumbai have come in today (Saturday) morning.
Colaba did manage to record 0.1 mm though Vagaries guage did not receive any rains (See Mumbai Readings Vagaries Station Page).
Well, so far the forecast and estimates for Mumbai are running true, and I hope the next few days forecast put up earlier also hold good for Mumbai.
Rainfall gradually increasing from Sunday for Mumbai...

Shall put up a sub continent and Mumbai/Pune Forecast for next 4 days by evening 10 pm IST.

Arabian Sea low is lingering on as a UAC west off Lakshdweep Islands.
I do not think it will waver much from the estimated course of action given by Vagaries.

Currently, strong SW winds from the UAC are blowing into the Saurashtra region with winds gushing to almost 55 kmph ( see Ashokbhai's Page and the link put up on Facebook group "Vagaries of the Weather").

This was expected (see Vagaries Tuesday Forecast for reasoning), and in turn will help in bringing down the day temperatures to some extent in Rajasthan and NW India , including Delhi/Haryana/Punjab areas.

Now, strong winds will sweep the Karachi coast, and bring down the day temperatures to the 35c levels. Interior regions of Pakistan will also see a slight drop in day temperatures. Sukkur could see a fall of 2c.

What next ? The UAC/Low will fizzle out within 2 days. But, it will fizzle out from the sea level only, while, a persistent low "aloft" at 700 hpa will stay on for another 5/6 days after that.

A low "aloft", also termed as an UAC, will bring in the necessary clouds on to the West coast of India, in other words, it will bring in the SWM as "promised" by Vagaries.
Onto the coast, and not inland, the SWM will move North from Kerala 3rd onwards, and progressively travel towards Coastal Karnataka and Goa and onto South Konkan by the 7th. Possibly move into Mumbai around the 9th of June as explained in the previous blog. 
But all this as a weak and moderate current, and not inland.

But, I do not foresee the Monsoon rains moving into Saurashtra soon, SWM may take a brief halt around 10N. 
Surat will get pre monsoon showers from 5th of June, but i do not think the SWM will move into Surat region next week. 

As the low will be a very brief visitor, and may not really move much towards the North, I do not think the expected light rains in Karachi will happen. 
But a relief from the heat is possible in the Sindh and Northern Punjab plains next week. 


Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,

What exactly is impeding the monsoon flows. is it because the MJO is an negative phase.

Even the low in BoB did not track into the land

Regards, Ananth

sridhar said...

there is a anticyclone @ 65E/ that a spoiler for swm advance....???/

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