Monday, June 04, 2012

Its Un Believable ! 
Yesterday I slogged thru  the weather details, and drew the conclusion, after a lot of effort, that the main reason for the dull pace of the SWM is the SST off the Somali Coast. 

Now, today, I see the SST off the Somali coast dropping. Check this SST of today, and see the "Green" patch off the Somali coast. It was absent till yesterday ! The SST is now in the 20c region. And the Upper regions off the Somali coast which were in the above normal colour yesterday, is now in the below normal range !

Winds are now gushing at 30 knts in the Central Arabian Sea, and are clocking 45 knts and above off the Somali coast. A sure and very clear sign of the SST indicating a fall. 

The SST off the Somali coast falls to 20-22c because the winds are very strong in the region, and actually "wipe" the warm waters away, cooling the seas in the region.

Ok, I had mentioned it could fall in a couple of days, but SST dropping in a day is very rare indeed. 
Please compare the SST images of yesterday and today, and see the difference in a day....It is really a great feeling having hit "the nail on the head".

In the Arabian Sea, The mass monsoon clouding, though improving today, is still not satisfactorily developed. It may push in a weakish monsoon into Kerala by tomorrow, Tuesday.

This, I clarify, as the state had the 3rd day of moderate rainfall. Enamakkal 4, Vadakara 3,Karipur Ap. 3,Piravam 3, Quilandi 2,Vaikom 2, Taliparamba 2, Angadipuram cms. And the Lakshdweep had heavy rainfall, with Amini getting 110 mms and Agathi measuring 70 mms.

Pre Monsoon showers have started moving into Coastal Karnataka and Konkan. Devgad in S.Konkan recieved 5 cms today (pre monsoon).This, would be in line with the Vagaries' forecast.

SWM can advance into Coastal Karnataka by Wednesday.

Pre Monsoon Thundershowers in Pune, Lonavala and Mahableshwar from Tuesday. 
Mumbai will get its thundershowers on Wednesday. 

After Vagaries advanced the SWM into Meghalaya, Assam and some NE states (see Monsoon advance map on Current Weather Page), there has been very heavy monsoon rains in the region. The chief amounts of rainfall in 24 hrs were:
Cherrapunji had very heavy rains of 396 mms. The Hill Station had another 50 mms till 5.30pm on Monday (today).(Akshay sends a pic from Cherrapunji taken today at 4.30pm. on Inter Active Page). 
The other stations in cms: Aie N H Xing 22, Beki-Mathanguri 18, Barpeta  18, Beki Rd. Bridge 15, Kokrajhar 14, Bongaigaon  12, Guwahati A/P 11, Gossaigaon 10, Jowai  9, Manas N H Xing 9.

Does any reader remember something about Vagaries (in its MW) mention something about a weak MJO sometime in early June ?? Any early effect on the Monsoon ? Will it keep the monsoon weak or will it pour out "all the way"? Delay in further prgress into N.India and Pakistan ?
Please read thru the old MW and keep yourself abreast. Vagaries will discuss more about it tomorrow.

Latest Mumbai (South) readings (including local rainfall)  from vagaries weather instruments available on "Mumbai Readings Vagaries Station" Page


junaid said...

@rajesh in estimating the date u have said 12-13 th june for mumbai!!!nd also said that initially it wud be weakish,,due to non active mjo phase!!! the weather conditions r quite uncomfrtable at panvel!!!eagerly waiting for the minimum to drop at least to 26 wich can happen after a thundershower!!!

junaid said...

the zone of convection is almost touching mumbai,,,will our mumbai get its premonsoon shower today???

Rajesh said...

junaid: yes, u r right..and i will mention this weak phase and MJO effect tonite.
Thundershower is a strong possibility on Wednesday.

Anonymous said...

Seems IMD has declared arrival of monsoon in Kerala just now.

svt said...

Yes!!! IMD declares arrival of monsoon in Kerala. Almost all weather sites predicting evening thunderstorms for Mumbai from tomorrow onwards.

junaid said...

i think it will rain today at panvel!!!!coz daek purple clouds have gathered along the southern nd south eastern horizon,,,,and it is quite cloudy now!!!sun has entirely disappered!!

junaid said...

@rajesh wat will be status of rain wich we might receive tomoroow?premonsoon or monsoon??? the cloud movement is from south -southwesterly so how can we term these showers as premonsoon type,,btw rains have started in ratnagiri also now!!

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