Friday, July 22, 2011

According to IMD latest reports, the low, BB4, is now a depression over SE Uttar Pradesh.
Maybe, though I do not read the situation as such. BB4 is moving west on same strength. Varanasi witnessed (depression centre as per IMD) peak winds gusts of 27 knts (avg 20 knts), and Easterly. And calm conditions (peak at 11 knts) in Allahbad (very nearby). Ambikapur, with SW winds at 3 knts. Pressure has not gone below 992 mb at either place today. These are the cities around the "depression" as per IMD.

I feel BB4 does not justify the up-gradation. It is left to the readers to take their call.

Anyway, BB4 is moving west, and has precipitated good rainfall in Vidarbha and East M.P. Jabalpur recorded 94 mms today, Ambikapur 56, and Gondia (Vidarbha) saw 61 mms.

Moving west, it will bring rains to remaining parts of M.P, North interior Mah, and Konkan by Saturday, and move the precipitation into the Gujarat region.
I feel rainfall will be concentrated in the Saurashtra peninsula and South Gujarat region. Baroda and Bharuch regions will get some heavy showers on Saturday.

In spite of the IMD up-gradation, i feel, as stated yesterday, one should not expect too much fom this system, and precipitation will be moderate, not too heavy. And short lived, maybe till Monday.

BB4 clouding shows bright chances of moving into the Sindh coast from Monday. With moisture laden winds, and level of convectivity favourable, precipitation along southern coastal Sindh is possible. Karachi will get light showers on Monday and Tuesday.


Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy to overcast conditions, with 4/5 heavy showers. Possibility of heavy showers on Saturday night. An increase in rains compared to Thursday/Friday. Rainfall lessening from Sunday night onwards. Rain amount 50 mms accumulated for Sat/Sun.

Monday: Rainfall decreasing.


Saturday/Sunday: Overcast to Cloudy. Light/medium showers in some areas. Rain amount 5-10 mms. Rainfall decreasing from Monday.

Earlier Post>
IMD says system ,lets number it, BB4, becomes a depression and is now at SE Utter Pradesh, 75 kms from Varanasi.
Few questions !! Varanasi pressure at 5.30 was 993 mb, Allahbad pressure was 992 mb and 1 mm of rain. Ambikapur , again nearest, pressure 993 mb, with only a drizzle. Gaya, nearby, pressure was 994 mb and traces of rain.
Original BB4 pressure as a low was 994 ! And, there is no clouding near the centre, in the nearby peripheri in central U.P. Seeing clouding around Mah.
More later tonite.

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