Saturday, July 09, 2011

Good inflow of moisture into the UAC over Rajasthan has precipitated copious rains over Rajasthan (Highest 202 mms in Ranivada) and Gujarat Friday thru Saturday. In Gujarat, Halol with 195 mms and Vijapur with 132 mms were amongst the highest. Even the desert region of Kutch has received rainfall on Friday and Saturday.

M.P. stations like Guna and Gwalior measured 73 mms and 60 mms respectively.

A weak trough along North Gujarat, at 700 hpa (tropospheric level) is seen weakening from Sunday. As the trough fades, decrease in rainfall from Sunday is seen over Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Similarly, interior Mah. also dries out from Sunday for a couple of days.

The off shore trough along the west coast, strong as of now due to the "booster" on Gujarat, also shows some weakening on sunday. But, can possibly re-organise itself from Monday.
Konkan will see some decrease on Sunday in precipitation. On the possibility of the west coast trough reorganising, a revival to some extent is possible from Monday itself.

However, a weak circulation over U.P. is seen precipitating rains over U.P. and North M.P. and pushing into Nepal on Sunday and Monday.

Now with the SWM current entrenched in Kutch, I see some moisture , and light rains pushing into the Pakistan coast, up to Karachi. Light rainfall, up to 5-10 mms, along the South Pakistan coast could be inplace from Monday thru Thursday.

Mumbai: With the Friday estimate thrown out (with 150 mms), Saturday was more like it (for vagaries). On Saturday, precipitation was 14 mms and 23 mms at Colaba and S'Cruz. (Estimate 20-25 mms).

Sunday, 10th,: Cloudy with 4/5 periods of showers. Some will be heavy (possibly post-noon) in different parts of the city. Inter-sparsed with bright intervals at times. Rain 25-30 mms.

Monday, 11th: Cloudy, with some heavy downpours. Increase in rain frequency, possible as off shore trough strengthens. Windy during rains. Rain 30-40 mms.

Tuesday, 12th: Overcast and frequent showers. Rain amount 35-40 mms.

Satellite townships like Navi Mumbai and Panvel could see some increase in rain frequency on Monday, with around 40 mms rains.


sset said...

Mumbai Santacruz as expected crossed 1000mm this weekend-stands at 1200mm!!! Spectacular waterfalls at Pandavkada-Navi Mumbai Kharghar. This is a forest city with crores of dense trees. Government has plans to link CentralPark(Hydepark) with Waterfalls. This will be much much beautiful than Jog falls.

Amit Tare said...

Dear Rajesh,
Your blogs are spot on for predictions. I request you tell me when will it rain in Nagpur. It is not that its not rained but, its just a trace. Would it be a drought year for Eastern Vidarbha and Nagpur

Rajesh said...

Nagpur Star. Thanks. Will put up a detailed forecast tonite, by 10.30 pm.

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