For the Northern regions of the sub-continent, its still "winter-in-waiting".
With no W.D. to bring in the winter snow and rains, the temperatures remain above nornmal.
A W.D. is in normal terms a cold front. Its cold air pushes the prevailing warm air over the region, causing condensation and cumulus cloud formations are seen as the W.D. (front) approaches a region. Soon due to quick cooling and fast cloud formations caused by the pushing upwards of the air, there are violent hailstorms and heavy snows in the Northern regions.
Then, in a typical W.D, the skies clear within 2 days, and the rear of the front is cold and dry.And these cold dry winds blow southwards towards central India.
But all that is yet to be seen in the North. Like I said, due to absence of the stronger cold dry northely winds,the current rains are "taking over"the western/central regions, and allowing the systems from the Arabian Sea to push in moisture into central and northern India.
The lowest temperatures in the extreme North are not typically "cold waves" like.
Leh touched -5c yesterday, which is 3c above its normal. Kargil was -3c yesterday and Srinagar has been around 2c for the past week. Much above what could be seen end November.Gulmarg ski resort was at a "warm" 2.1c and Pahalgam 's night was -1c. Qazigund and Kokernag recorded minimum of 1.5c and 2.9c.
However, the coldest place in India yesterday was Darbuk (Ladakh) at -18c.
Delhi around 14c is 4c above, and Jaipur at 15c is 5c above. Simla saw 9c, still 3c above normal.And Udaipur was 18c, being above by +8c.
Across the border too, the nights are not cool enough to call it a good winter. Islamabad 7c, Lahore 10c, Quetta 2c, Karachi 17c, Peshawar 8c are all above normal.
This temperature anomaly map shows most of the sub-continent in the above normal regions.
And. its because of this, absenve of W.D.s that the systems from the south are having a field day !
Whats happens next? A real good strong W.D, is needed to bring the winter back, but, do not see one in the next 4/5 days at least.
Meanwhile, as anticipated by vagaries, the low in the Arabian weakened to 1008 mb as on Tuesday late morning. It shows some clouding across south gujarat and north Mah. coast, and as mentioned in the blog yesterday, I expect it to fizzle out in the sea.
More on this later today.