19 Dec 2017 .. Entire Indian sub-continent weather..
(THIS EFFORT IS BEST VIEWED ON LAPTOP / DESKTOP)

• Most of the sub-continent (95% area) will be dry and sunny during this week.'Vagaries of the Weather' will be at the maximum with the frigidity of the Himalayas to the humid tropical weather of Lakshadweep islands.

• Light Rain/Snow will be limited to extreme North over Kashmir & Himachal (under the influence of a weak Western Disturbance) , extreme South over Tamilnadu / Sri Lanka (shallow easterlies) & Andaman Nicobar islands ( under the influence of west moving and weakening Tropical storm 'Kai-tak')

• Fog expected over North and East sub-continent during the morning.Night temps will drop over North towards weekend and day temps will increase over East.

• West / Central sub-continent will be sunny,crisp and very dry; resulting in falling night temps during the week . 

Today's weather highlights over the Indian sub-continent :

1. Some of the lowest Daytime Humidity .. Mumbai 20% , Pune/Rajkot 15 % , Jaisalmer 10% 
2. Lowest temp over the plains .. 0.5 c (Fatehpur ..Sikar dist, Rajasthan)
3. Highest temp .. 35.3 c (Mangalore ,Coastal Karnataka)

Indian sub-continent 3D Map 

(Location reference - W..West , S..South ..)

(INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT -Current Weather.. Max / Min temp in celcius during past 24 hrs):

MAP LOCATION (WEST) MAX  MIN  MAP LOCATION (SOUTH/CENTRAL) MAX  MIN  W1 MUMBAI 32 20 S1 CHENNAI 29 21 W2 PUNE 28 12 S2 BENGALURU 27 15 W3 NORTH GOA 34 18 S3 KOCHI 34 19 W4 RAJKOT 29 17 S4 COLOMBO 32 23 W5 KARACHI 27 15 C1 NAGPUR 28 9 W6 JAISALMER 25 10 C2 INDORE 27 11

MAP	LOCATION (NORTH)	MAX	MIN		MAP	LOCATION (EAST)	MAX	MIN
N1	DELHI	23	9		E1	KOLKATA	22	16
N2	JAIPUR	26	10		E2	DHAKA	21	17
N3	LUCKNOW	21	7		E3	BHUBANESHWAR	28	12
N4	LEH	3	-13		E4	KATHMANDU	20	5
N5	BHATINDA	22	5		E5	TAWANG	9	-1

IT'S MID -DECEMBER & NORTH KONKAN WAS COOLER THAN MOST OF INTERIOR MAHARASHTRA  during past couple of days..

Refer the 'sub-divisional Maharashtra map' below .. ( 14 Dec 2017 , MAX / MIN TEMP in C) 

The Konkan coast will get warmer than Interior Maharashtra from tomorrow ..

Monitoring Mumbai's Mangroves: See Article on Mumbai Page

Posted Sunday Night:

Weather System of the Day: Western Disturbance D-1.....over North India with Induced Low over Punjab/North Rajasthan on Monday.
Rain expected from this system in J&K, H.P, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West U.P. And North Rajashthan . The WD is not of extreme nature and moderate rains/snow expected on 11th Monday, 12th Tuesday and 13th Wednesday. 

City weather for 11th/12th and 13th December:
Mumbai: Next 3 days will be clear and prevailing W/NW winds. Likely to clear the fog and smog seen in Mumbai for the last 2 days. Night temperatures likely to fall from Wednesday morning. 
Pune: With clear skies, the nights are expected to get colder, dropping to around 11/12c by Wednesday morning.


Srinagar: Rains expected on Monday and turning to snow on Tuesday 12rh and Wednesday. cold temperatures with days below 7c.
DelhiNCR: Light/Medium rainfall in many parts will realise in a rise in the night temperature minimums. Days will get cooler at 23/24c.
Colder days next week in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan.


Bangalore: Next 3 days will be misty in the morning, and the day-night temperature range will be between 29c-16c.
Kolkata: With the rains clearing, the days wil  get warmer to 27c, and mornings will be foggy.

Posted Thursday Night:

BB-19, depression at estimated core pressure now at 998 mb, and located at 12.7N and 88.7E Thursday evening. Divergence in the upper winds and Low wind shear is favourable for poleward outflow and further strengthening. 
Likely to track towards Odisha/West Bengal coast.

Heavy showers likely in Bhubaneshwar on Friday and Saturday.
Moderately heavy showers expected in Kolkata on Friday/Saturday.
No effect on Chennai or T.N. from system.

Western Disturbance D-1 will approach North India on 11th as expected. Rain/Snow likely in Kashmir/H.P and rains in Punjab, Haryana, N.Rajasthan and West U.P. 
Snowfall liikely in Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Srinagar on around 12th December.

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U.A.E.
During this weekend, Friday/Sat/Sunday, cool NW winds will blow in the U.A.E. and Muscat.
Very light rain in some parts is likely in Abu Dhabi on Friday, otherwise clear skies.
Abu Dhabi will be in the range of 24c-14c and Muscat around 25c - 14c.

Posted Wednesday 6th Night:

BB-19: A depression currently located at 10.2N and 88.2E. Wind speeds estimated at 40 kmph with estimated core pressure at 1004 mb.

Showing sparse convection at centre and more cloud bands in Northern periphery.

Very good divergence in upper winds will strengthen it rapidly.Track will now be NW maybe becoming N/NW after 36  hrs.

A Major WD ( D-1) will approach and precipitate rain/snow over North Pakistan on 10th and over NW India on around 11th December....

Mumbai: Partly cloudy skies with drop in Night temperatures next few nights. Possibility of light rains again in Mumbai on around 11th ...more later

Maximum Temperatures dropped in Gujarat on 6th as a medium cloud cover of incursion moisture covered the region:

V.V. Nagar 18.1c, Surat 18.4c, Idar 18.8c, Ahmadabad/Vadodra 19.0c, Gandhinagar 19.8c, Amreli 20.0c. 

OCKHI Rainfall in Maharashtra ..Map prepared by Vagarian Tejas and Data from Vagarian Abhijit

Posted Tuesday 5th December Night:

The erstwhile "Ockhi" has almost dissipated and with a "bald" centre, is located at 19.1 N and 71.5E. Massive dry air encirclement and cold waters almost decayed the system within 12-18 hrs.Difficult without cloud imagery to get exact core pressure and wind speeds, but approximately average pressure should be 993 mb and 30-40 kmph winds.

As expected much earlier by Vagaries, dry air encirclement and cold waters with wind shear almost finished off the system.
Let us move to BB-19 now....
Dry day tomorrow for Gujarat and North Konkan. Day Temperatures rising in Gujarat.

Mumbai: The maximum rain spell is over. With not much rain now, Wednesday will be devoid of rains, and in fact bright.

Andheri received 29 mms of rain, dadar 28 mms, Goregaon 32 mms, 
Colaba IMD managed 70.3 mms in 12 hrs till 8.30 pm. This is the highest 24 hr and overall December rain for Colaba. Previous December record was 51.1 mms in the month in 1962 with same day (5th Dec) heaviest 24 hr fall of 47.8 mms/
 Today, Scruz recorded 36 mms in the same 12 hrs period of time. Scruz also breaks its own December record which was 55.7 in 1967 and heaviest fall was 31.4 mms on 12 Dec 1967. Total this year in December is 58 mms till 8.30 pm 5th Dec.
Maximum temperatures on 5th December: Colaba 23.2c and Scruz 23.3c.

Cool day in Gujarat on 5th December:Max temperatures; 

Gandhinagar 19.0c, Ahmadabad 19.1c, V.V. Nagar 20.1c, Surat 20.6c, Idar 21.0c, Bhavnagar 21.6c, 
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Posted Tuesday 5th Dec Morning:

Mumbai: Heavy rains currently lashing Mumbai. As the depleted storm moves past and skirts Mumbai, 5.30 am at 18N and 70.6E, just about 250-260 kms west/South West off Mumbai.Estimated pressure 990 mb at core.
 But the main convection area is now around Mumbai, East of the centre. And apparently the Centre, seen thru convection clouds as they weaken just  200-220 kms West off Mumbai. Extra thick and convection clouds seen around and on Mumbai .Image of 9.30 am.

Mumbai rainfall expected to decrease substantially post noon or evening.

Mumbai rains till 11.30 am Tuesday from 8.30 am: CST Station 21 mms, Dadar (Salil) 22 mms, Vagaries Club 21 mms

Current Temp at Vagaries 22.4c at 11.30 am

Posted Monday 4th Dec Night:

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm has weakened (Estimated Average 985 mb) and now currently located at 16.1N and 69.5E, meaning it has moved NE. Core wind speed estimated at 100 kmph. 
Now, as explained, it is encountering wind shear and cold dry air envolopment, thus weakening it further on Tuesday. Expected to make landfall as a low around Gulf of Khambhat by 6th morning as a Low.

Rainfall has commenced on Monday evening in parts of Saurashtra. 
North Konkan including Mumbai has been receiving light  to moderate rains since Monday evening.

Mumbai: The Ockhi effect : Light to moderate rain over Mumbai on Monday evening. Colaba 13 mms and Scruz 11 mms till 11.30 pm IST. Monday.(Expected 5-10 mms on Monday evening).
Tuesday 5th will get Light to moderate rains, and a heavy shower possible in some areas. Windy with gusts upto 35-40 kmph. Rainfall from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning (8.30 am) around 25-30 mms. Day cool around 26c. Rains decrease from Wednesday. 

Ahmadabad: Tuesday will be cloudy and with occasional showers, with a heavy shower possible. Around 30 mms rains likely.

Heavy falls expected in parts of Eastern Saurahtra. 

BB-19 likely to become a Depression by Tuesday. Later, strengthen more and track towards North T.N. coast. Approaching the coast around Thursday 7th.
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Posted Sunday Night:
Severe Cyclone "Ockhi":
Tracking Northwards now, latest location at 13.5N and 68.7E. Wind speed estimated at 130 kmph and core pressure 977 mb estimated average.
As explained earlier, the cold dry air is now almost encircling the Very Severe Cyclone from the West and south. Hence, with the positioning of the STR, the Cyclone has now tracked N, changed course along  expected lines.
As explained earlier, the cold dry air is now almost encircling the Very Severe Cyclone from the West, south and South-East (New). 

Hence, with the positioning of the STR, the Cyclone has now tracked N, changed course.
"Ockhi now likely to curve  NE from late Sunday night. 
Pronounced weakening from Monday. System might rapidly weaken due to cold air and increasing vertical wind shear.
Core wind speeds will be 120 kmph by Monday morning.

Likely to strike land as a Low between Dahanu and Surat coast by Tuesday 5th. 

Light to moderate rainfall likely in parts of Saurashtra on Monday. Rainfall will be moderate in Saurashtra and South Gujarat on Tuesday. Moderate rainfall likely in North Konkan on Tuesday.Heavy falls in localised patches.

Mumbai: Light to medium rainfall likely in Mumbai City and Outer townships on Monday evening and Tuesday. (Around 5-10 mms). Very windy weather on Tuesday.Cool day at 26c on Tuesday/Wednesday.
Pune: Cloudy weather on Monday with light rains in parts of city. Clearing by Tuesday evening. Rise in night temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, dropping from Wednesday.

Ahmadabad: Cloudy on Monday.light rains in evening. Heavy showers on Tuesday (around 40-50 mms). Day will be cool on Tuesday at around 22-24c.
Surat: Cloudy Monday, and rains on Tuesday. Around 20 mms rainfall expected on Tuesday. Very windy on Tuesday.
Moderate rains in Saurashtra (Rajkot will be cold in the day at 22/24c) on Monday and Tuesday. 

BB-19 is now a Well Marked Low in the Southern Bay. Likely to become a Depression by Monday and track West....shall start chasing this system. Heading for North TN/A.P. coast.