Weather outlook from 28th May to 2nd June 2026.    

                          

(i) Mumbai Special 

(ii) Details:

*Kerala awaits SW Monsoon onset...

*North/Northwest regions to get some relief from heat

*Monsoon winds remain weak, with a weaker Somali jet, avoiding hitting Indian peninsula...sluggish progress after Andaman-Nicobar onset. 

850 hPa winds as of 27th May evening.

*The Madden-Julian Oscillation is in a convection-suppressing phase over the Indian Ocean (phases 6 and 7, with RMM amplitude >1), an important factor in the slow progression of the monsoon. 

The MJO is expected to weaken in magnitude in Phase 7 after 3rd June. Forecasts from various weather models show monsoon winds strengthening from June first week onwards. 

*Westerly winds will align over the southern Arabian Sea and are likely to reach a depth of up to 600 hPa around 3rd June (+/- 2 days). 

*This is when we expect monsoon onset over Kerala. 

*Further northward progress of the Monsoon seems to be on schedule as of now. 

We expect monsoon onset in Mumbai around 11th June (+/- 2 days). 

*A strong Western Disturbance (WD) will affect Northern States/UTs from 29th May, bringing dust storms followed by thunderstorms with gusty, damaging winds. 

Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and parts of Madhya Pradesh to receive rain/thunderstorms with damaging winds/lightning from 29th to 31st May. 

*The Himalayan region will get thunderstorms and hailstorms, and some snow at higher elevations.

WD trough will drop way south than normal, bringing in rain/thunderstorm chances for Gujarat and Southern Rajasthan during 29th to 31st May.