Monsoon Watch - 4... 16th May
1. ENSO Status
Current ENSO conditions remain Neutral.
Latest model guidance indicates that El Niño conditions may begin evolving after July, with a more noticeable strengthening likely after September.
The present indications suggest that ENSO is not expected to significantly interfere with the initial onset phase of the South-West Monsoon.
2. Cross Equatorial Winds
Cross-equatorial winds are strengthening steadily near the Equator and are now reaching the East African coast efficiently.
A noticeable South-Westerly turn is visible off the Somalia coast, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) there around 24°C, supporting gradual strengthening of the low-level jet.
The Seasonal Low over the core Thar region is currently around 998 mb, which is considered satisfactory for this stage of May.
Formation is progressing well despite temperatures remaining broadly within the normal range.
However, the pressure gradient still needs further strengthening during the coming 10–12 days.
The South-West Monsoon has entered the Andaman Sea, marking the formal beginning of monsoon advancement across the eastern sector.
Arabian Sea branch parameters are also progressing steadily and favorably.
Expected Progress Ahead
Increasing heat across Central and Northwest India, with temperatures expected to cross 45°C more frequently, should help strengthen the required monsoon pressure gradient further.
At present trends, the Kerala Monsoon onset is expected around 30th May to 1st June.
Vagaries Insight
The overall monsoon progression presently appears largely on schedule, with both Arabian Sea and Bay branch indicators gradually aligning positively.
While ENSO evolution towards El Niño later in the season remains a factor to monitor carefully, the immediate onset phase currently does not show any major adverse signals.
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