20th May

Possible chance of Derailing the El Niño effect this summer: 

A Positive I.O.D. can partially offset weak El Niño effects and sometimes supports a near-normal Indian Monsoon.

A Positive I.O.D. occurs when the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than normal, while the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia turns cooler than normal.

This temperature contrast strengthens winds towards Africa and often helps enhance the Indian Monsoon by increasing moisture flow towards India.

Typical Effects:

Better monsoon support for India 🌧️

Increased rainfall over East Africa

Reduced rainfall near Indonesia/Australia

Vagaries Insight:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase, hovering around -0.04.

Forecasts project a shift to a positive IOD phase by late June or July 2026, with the index potentially exceeding the +0.5 threshold as a developing El Niño influences the broader climate system.

This may counter the developing El Nino. Indian Ocean may start working a bit in India’s favour even as the Pacific turns hostile.

Still Too early to make a call