Monsoon Watch-- 5...29th May 2026

🟢 Vagaries Summary – Monsoon Watch 5

🟢 Pre-Monsoon Rainfall: Near Normal

🟢 May Heat: Near Normal and adequate for seasonal low development

🟢 Equatorial Winds: Strong and supportive for Monsoon progress

🟡 Pressure Gradient: Neutral, but expected to improve further during early June

🟡 IOD: Currently Neutral; possibility of turning Positive later, which could aid the Monsoon

🟢 ENSO: Still Neutral. A fully qualified El Niño is unlikely before August. Any significant impact of a stronger El Niño on India is more likely after September 2026.

🌧️ Overall Assessment: Current indicators remain broadly supportive of normal Monsoon onset and advancement across India.

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Detailed Note:👇

Monsoon Limit Today:

1.El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. 

The most recent RONI value (February/Mar/April 2026) is -0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

Proper qualified normal strength EL Nino not before August...

 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch ENSO-neutral conditions are present.

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above-average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 

El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 – February 2027).*

So, Effectively, the feared "strong Historical EL Nino" could affect India after September 2026.

2. I.O.D

3.Pre Monsoon Rainfall: Normal  

4.Pre Monsoon Heat: Normal 

MAY HEAT

5.Pressure Gradient: Neutral

6. Equatorial Winds : Strong

7.Vagaries' Estimate:

Dates of Onset up to Maharashtra.

Monsoon Onset over Kerala /N.E. States; 2nd June-4th June

Coastal Kar: 6th/7th June.

South Konkan/Goa: 8th/9th June

Monsoon Onset over Mumbai/Pune/ West Bengal: 12th/14th June...Pre Monsoon Showers 3rd June onwards.

South Interior Maharastra: 12th June.

North Interior Maharashtra /Marathwada: 15th/18th June.

{Surat/Bharuch/Valsad/Ahmedabad/Baroda: Light to moderate pre monsoon Showers/Thundershowers on 2nd/3rd/4th June. Monsoon after 16th/17th June in South Gujarat.}