Co Authors: GSB, Shreyas Dhavale, Pradeep John, Dr. Vineet Singh, Gokul

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

South West Monsoon Announcement # 1

12th May Night Post: 

A weak low (BB 1) forms in BoB, displacing the anticyclone. 

This is likely to intensify a little and open the doors for the cross equatorial flow to enter southern BoB.

SWM 2026 onset over Andaman & Nicobar islands likely by 15th/16th May as a weak current.

Estimated winds on 15th: 👇

As BB 1 moves NE, rainfall will reduce over the Islands, hence weak current.

Arabian Sea anticyclone also weakens, but ridging persists.

As the Somali current intensifies, and the SST drops along the Somali Coast in the last week of May, pre monsoon thundershowers can commence along Keralam and Coastal Karnatak by May end

Note and images compiled by Vagarian Shreyas.

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