Friday, August 11, 2023

A New Research by IITM & IISER (available to Vagaries) shows El Nino and Indian Summer Monsoon not Inter-dependent:👇

Tracking the Changing El Niño-Monsoon Relationship across Regions and Timeframes 

The monsoon rainfall exhibits a strong relationship with the El Niño, but is different across regions over India and has varied over timeframes during the last century, reports a study led by Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. 

In the study published in the journal Scientific Reports, the researchers report a significant change in El Niño–monsoon relationship over the north, central, and south India. 

They find that while the El Niño–monsoon relationship has stayed moderately strong and stable for south India, it has become exceptionally stronger over time for north India, while it has considerably weakened and become non-existent over the central Indian region (core monsoon zone) in the recent decades.

These changes in the ENSO–monsoon relationship are regionally non-uniform. 

Over south India, there is no considerable variation in the ENSO–monsoon relationship. Whereas over north India the ENSO–monsoon relationship is becoming strong in recent decades. 

On the contrary, association between the rainfall over central India (core monsoon zone) and ENSO has diminished in the recent decades

Regional variability over time The ENSO impact over the Indian subcontinent is not the same everywhere. The relationship between ENSO and monsoon has not remained the same throughout the period from 1901 to the present. We notice that the ENSO–monsoon relationship started getting stronger from 1901 to 1940, became stable from 1941 to 1980 and then the relationship has weakened in the recent period (1981 onwards). These changes in the ENSO–monsoon relationship are regionally non-uniform. Over south India, there is no considerable variation in the ENSO–monsoon relationship. Whereas over north India the ENSO–monsoon relationship is becoming strong in recent decades. On the contrary, association between the rainfall over central India (core monsoon zone) and ENSO has diminished in the recent decades


The research was conducted by Athira K.S., Panini Dasgupta, Saranya J.S., and Vineet Kumar 
Singh at IITM, Pune, under Koll’s guidance, in collaboration with Raju Attada at IISER Mohali.






2 comments:

sset said...

Guess this is not correct.
Entire southern India in drought due to SWM failure.

Shridhara rao said...

Btw, your title is wrong.. the research is clearly showing that El nino has huge effect on monsoon for South and North India and only central India is decoupled from it.. but you state that monsoon has no link to El nino for entire India.
It seems you will go to any length to defend your view that we are not suffering from extreme weather patterns. In south interior Karnataka, monsoon has become very erratic since last 20 years and we see huge variations year to year.. this was not the case before.

 13th July:Mumbai lakes at 25% Storage today And rainfall last 24 hrs 👇 Ghat region of Maharashtra top 5👇