Posted 13th August:
The Monsoon Axis is positioned North of its normal position. Stubbornly stuck since 10 days near the Himalayan foothills.
This thus creates a "Break Monsoon " phase. Low rainfall hence is seen in Central India, which includes Maharashtra.
This "Break Monsoon " is Normal in August, and records show it can remain for as long as 21 days. However, we expect the Axis to move South by 19th.
This year, we estimate the condition, of lower rainfall in Maharashtra (and Mumbai) to remain till 19th August.
Mumbai: The season's rainfall today at Santacuz at 2348 mms (+667 mms), for this day. Colaba seasonal total 1785 mms ( +268 mms).
July had very good, excessive, rainfall breaking the Monthly all time record with 1768 mms,
August has gone dry. Actually it seems comparatively drier after getting surplus. So far in 13 days, August Mumbai Scruz has got only 30 mms send Colaba 28 mms. (Normal for the whole month is 561 mms). The driest August on record was in 1972, when the month received 108 mms.
But, we still have 17 days to reach the normal August quota of 561 mms. mms.
The Lakes supplying water to Mumbai are The Mumbai lakes and dams level reported is (82 %) of the total.
Rainfall for Northern States - Outlook till 16th August:
Continuing with our earlier "Lookout":
As the Monsoon trough will remain close to the Himalayan foothills for next 1-2 days, there is a chance of very heavy rainfall across the low and mid-ranges of Uttarakhand and heavy rainfall for parts of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu regions for next 24 hours.
Parts of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi NCR may also see moderate rain/thundershowers in patches during evening of 14th to night of 16th August.