Sunday, August 20, 2023

Posted 20th Night:

August rainfall remains in "suspense".😟


This revival spell of rain did not do much for Mumbai...Very little rain from this spell ( 5-10 mms). Will see decrease in rainfall this week, with hopes of  partial revival from 24th again. 

This August upto 20th evening: :

Colaba: 44 mms ( Lowest August  83 mms 1943),

Scruz: 37 mms, ( Lowest August 108 mms 1972)

Pune: 27 mms. (Lowest August 12.4 mms 1972)...

Lowest total in August in Pune District: Daund (Pune); 4 mms

Sambhajinagar (Aurangabad) Region also got small amounts of rain in this spell...not enough to help the crops.

Last 8 days rain in District...with August total in last row:


Gujarat: Eastern Gujarat received little rain on 20th from the Low Pressure...the table showing the day's rain 

We expect the Eastern region (Bharuch) to get light rain on 21st/22nd, and then see a decrease. Rest of Gujarat may not get any meaningful rains next week.


The current monsoon break that started on August 5th has finally ended on 18th. This current monsoonal break makes it the third-longest for this century after 2002 and 2009....13 days

BB-6 did bring the Monsoon Axis Southwards as seen here, and bring some rains in the expected States, as seen here👇

Rainfall from BB-6 in cms:👇

But, soon, we see the Monsoon axis moving back Northwards. So, All regions except Himalayan Foothills, will get another "Break ' for 4 days.

Above chart shows a "Ridge" persisting  in the Arabian Sea, which has prevented increased rainfall along entire West coast (Mumbai). The Low Pressure was not "actively" supported by strong Westerlies from Arabian Sea ( West Coast off shore trough absent)
The monsoon trough will again shift towards the Himalayan foothills next week and remain locked there until the end of August. This will reduce rains in central India once again.
Chances of heavy rainfall next week in West U.P, Western Nepal,  Uttarakhand & shifting to Bihar.
Delhi NCR can get rains on 22nd.


sset said...

Kerala is becoming dry like erstwhile Rajasthan, Rajasthan is becoming wet like erstwhile Kerala...

Cumulus arjun said...

Are there any chances of rain increasing in Maharashtra from 24th august?

  21st  July afternoon post Comparative rain till 21st morning: Panji 2525 mms ( 100 ") and Ratnagiri 2572 mms ( 102") cross 100&q...