Posted 12th March Afternoon:
Its been hot and very hot last 10 days for Mumbai. With above normal temperatures to the extent of upto 6c above the average. The last 6 days..showing the trend.👇
Well, all this was attributed to the dominating Easterly winds, which constantly kept the Westerly sea winds at bay. Even the North winds , which could have provided relief, but were missing due to absence of Western Disturbances in the North.
Now, with a Trough of Low pressure developing in the Interior Maharashtra region, the hot easterlies will cease to blow over Mumbai, and ....
From Tuesday 14th, Mumbai will see the days getting better at 34/35c..Much better then the high 30s. But, the sweat factor may increase, as the sea winds can increase the humidity levels..Light drizzle possible in some areas of city on 16th.
So, after 14th, for the week upto 17th, Mumbai will see around 34/35c in the day and partly cloudy skies.
Interior Maharshtra regions like Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwda and Vidharbh can get showers and hail.
Heavy rains and hail possible in Sambhajinagar ( Aurangabad) and Marathwada on 15th/16th. Warning to farmers to take due precautions to cover the crops after thrashing.15/16 रोजी संभाजीनगर (औरंगाबाद) आणि मराठवाड्यात पाऊस आणि गारपीट होण्याची शक्यता आहे. पीक कापणीनंतर झाकण्यासाठी योग्य ती खबरदारी घेण्याचा इशारा शेतकऱ्यांना
Pune can expect light showers on 15th/16th.
These showers in the interior are actually "advance pre monsoon showers". The trough in the Interior Maharshtra and South M.P. region cause the moisture from the Bay and Arabian Sea to converge in the Central Peninsula.
Credit Australian Government Bureau of Metereology
Issued Tuesday 14 March 2023
The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.
La Niña has ended - ENSO now neutral. El Niño WATCH issued
La Niña has ended in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) with oceanic and atmospheric indicators having returned to neutral ENSO levels.
International climate models suggest neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist through the southern autumn. However, there are some signs that El Niño could form later in the year. Hence the Bureau has issued an El Niño WATCH. This means there is a 50% chance of an El Niño in 2023.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently very strong over the Pacific Ocean but is forecast to move into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming fortnight. This may bring drier conditions to Australia for the latter half of March.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently strongly negative but is expected to return to neutral values over the coming weeks.
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist around south-east Australia, New Zealand and the west coast of Australia, but close to average temperatures prevail around northern Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral – the IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate while the monsoon trough is in the southern hemisphere (typically December to April). Forecasts for the IOD made at this time of the year have low accuracy beyond April.
Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C over the period 1910–2021. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10 to 20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
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up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.
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