Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Vagaries of the Weather...is not an unusual phenomena...

It is seen that the cyclic variations occur over the years . This can be attributed to the various weather parameters  happening from meteorological events in certain periods of time.

Cyclic rotations are repetitive over the years. 

In Europe, currently, there is a freezing extended winter and most unusual cold snowfall in California. 

India saw the hottest February ever.

An early ( temporary) beginning to March 2023 with high temperatures and lack of winter ( WDs) systems. 

Mumbai saw hot weather for an unprecedented 8 days at a stretch with daytime temperatures 6c above the normal.

Expecting Mumbai to see some light thundershowers from 15th, and better day temperatures around 34/35°c.

We write ( temporary) as the heat waves in the Sub Continent is about to wane.

We do not expect any place in India to touch even 40c ,at least for the next 10 days into March.

All theories will vanish, as Nature first heated the Land, and consequently formes a Low pressure trough in Central India by Mid March. 

Early Pre Monsoon Showers expected..  Thundershowers with rain and hail is expected all over 

1. Central India ( EastRajasthan , M.P, Chhattisgarh,  parts of Haryana &U.P, Jharkhand. 

2. Peninsula India ( Maharashtra  Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana).

3. Parts of Southern States. 


Outlook: for 14th -20th March 

A wet spell of pre-monsoon rains is likely across the country - beginning tomorrow 14th March, and likely extending to 20th March!


- Strong Western Disturbance due to dip in Westerly Jet Stream at 200 hPa

- Trough of low and wind convergence in lower levels across peninsular India

- Lots of moisture pulled in from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal 

Thunderstorms with chance of hail likley across Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and western parts of Karnataka and Kerala starting from 14th March. 

15th-17th March to see the most widespread thunderstorms across the interior peninsula including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. 

Parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal to see thundershowers during the next 7 days. 

Outlook prepared by Vagarian Shreyas. 

1 comment:

VISHWAS said...

Rainfall in Santacruz with loud thundering

Big rainfall numbers from core monsoon zone in the past 24 hrs.  Porbandar,Guj   49 cm  Eluru, AP   27 cm        Castle Rock  24 cm   Compil...