Saturday, January 02, 2016

Posted Tuesday Night:

The J-2 trough in the upper atmosphere descends Southwards till 30N..and is currently around 55E.
The Western Disturbance, J-2 , mover Eastwards and the trough will bring light rains to Sindh ( Karachi and Hyderabad) onThursday 7th. 

Cloudy weather in Saurashtra on  Thursday/Friday. Very light rain possible in some isolated pockets of Kutch on Thursday/Friday.
Further, system will move Eastwards to bring light scattered Precipitation on Thursday 7th/Friday 8th to Central India (M.P, parts of Rajashan) and few parts of Haryana and Delhi NCR.

Inputs :
From Vagarian Vineet (Meerut)
Maximum temperature rose sharply in west UP delhi, parts of uttarakhand and are now way above normal...Some above normal temperatures are
Jhansi :- 26.5 (6 degree)
Allahabad:- 26.4(3 degree)
Agra :- 25.6 (4 degree)
Moradabad :- 25.5 (5 degree)
Bareilly :- 25 (5 degree)
Dehradun :- 24.2 (5 degree)
Bhopal :- 29.1 (5 degree)
Some records also broken just in the first week of Jan itself
Maximum temperatures in delhi (sfd) has broken the record of last 5 years
In dehradun maximum temperatures has broken the record of last 6 years
In Bhopal maximum temperatures has broken the record of last 4 years.

From Arpit Sharma
Delhiites enjoying March like weather in January...
Safdarjung max today: 26.5c(+7)
Palam max: 26.7c(+7)

From Vagarian Gaurav (Junagadh)
It's really rare to see above 20C minimum temp during first week of January.....junagadh recorded 21.5C minimum temp today. least 10C above normal.....
Source : imdaws

From Abhijit Modak:
Colaba max temp 33.8c which is higher than Scruz max 32.6c today !!

Something New and Different from Rohit for our Eastern Region Readers..Available only on Vagaries:

Posted Monday 4th Night:

J-1 was precipitating rain and snow in Kashmir and H.P. hills on Monday...Moving away from Tuesday.

Srinagar had 7 mms of rain and snow, with the day's high at 3.3c. 

Mumbai: Cooler days ahead..Tuesday 5th and Wednesday 6th sees a cooler day around 30/31c...(Gone are the 32c/33c days)... and Wednesday morning the Low will be around 13/15c at Scruz and 20/21c at Colaba. 

Thane remains cooler at night around 15c.

From Wednesday night, the North winds get stronger, bringing a colder "real feel" to the City. Thursday will see cool winds , with the day around 28/29c, and Friday morning seeing around 14c at Scruz and 19/20c at Colaba. Sky getting partly cloudy.

Possibility of further fall in Mumbai temps from Friday...Fresh Update on Mumbai on Tuesday Night..
Posted Saturday Evening:

Western Disturbance J-1 moves into Abu Dhabi  and West Pakistan on Sunday. And into Pakistan (North/Central) on Sunday evening and on 
Monday 4th Jan into India (Kashmir, H.P. and Utterakhand. Cloudy weather with isolated rain in Punjab).
Shimla and Srinagar could get snow.

A trough ( We may label it J-2) in the upper levels brings rains to Central Sindh on Thursday 7th Jan and North (Delhi) and Central India on Friday 8th Jan.

North East Monsoon Withdraws from South India on 5th January.


ameya said...

Thanks for thane update sir.
Looking for the Friday to sunday weather update where more fall in temp expected.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government
Bureau of meteorology
Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 5 January 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño likely past its peak
A number of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators suggest that the 2015–16 El Niño has peaked in recent weeks. Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures suggest this event is one of the top three strongest El Niño events of the past 50 years. Climate models suggest the 2015–16 El Niño will decline during the coming months, with a return to ENSO neutral likely during the second quarter of 2016.

In the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the sea surface and sub-surface have cooled in recent weeks, though temperatures remain at strong El Niño levels. In the atmosphere, the Southern Oscillation Index has eased to weak El Niño values. Recent bursts of westerly winds over the equatorial western Pacific may temporarily slow the decline of El Niño.

Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, while 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models also suggest neutral and La Niña are equally likely for the second half of 2016, with a repeat El Niño the least likely outcome. Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niño events brings above average rainfall to parts of Australia in the first half of the year.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very much warmer than average across the majority of the basin. This basin-wide warmth may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.

Unknown said...

What about south gujarat - wintery days ahead for us too?

Unknown said...

rajesh sir,what about temp in cities of pen and roha?

Rajesh said...

abizer: Same conditions as current temperatures till Thursday. Weekend forecast, maybe cooler weather , on Thursday. Can expect a slight drop on the weekend.

Satyen: Warmer temps next 2 days for South Guj, and then cooler from Friday.

Weekend forecast will be put up on Thursday.

Anonymous said...

Sir, when will NW plains(including Kanpur) again experience cold day and cold wave conditions, typical of Jan?

Unknown said...

Thank you - waiting for the next update.

5th Night News: Projected low pressure area (AS-1) has formed in the Arabian as a Well Marked Low....tracking N/NW...