Weather forecast from Sunday, 4th May to Friday 9th May

Rainy and stormy weather for West, North and North Western regions!

**Gujarat: 

*Rainy and stormy weather is expected across the state during most of the week. 

*Rain/thunderstorms likely across Kutch, Saurashtra, Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar, Baroda, Bharuch and Surat/Valsad regions. Chances of hails and gusty winds during strong thunderstorms. 

*Weekly total rainfall could be above 120 mm in some parts of north Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch and 20-60 mm elsewhere across the state. **

Mumbai: 

*Warm and humid days to continue. 

*Max temperature remaining around 34°C. *Minimum temperature to be around 26°C. *Increasing clouds in the sky from 5th/6th May onwards. 

*Some showers likely next week between 6th and 9th May (may not exceed 10 mm).

Few areas in MMR region (Thane/Palghar districts) may get some thundershowers.

Pune: 

*Some relief likely from the prolonged 40-41°C daytime heat. Max temperature can drop to around 38°C 

*Minimum may also drop to around 22°C. 

*Some clouds during afternoon/evening hours, with chance of localized rain/thundershowers during 6th-8th May.

North Konkan - Palghar/Dahanu regions and Madhya Maharashtra - Nashik/Nandurbar/Dhule/Jalgaon districts can get rain/thunderstorms from 5th-8th May. 

Southern parts of Rajasthan may receive moderate thunderstorms with localized heavy rain, possibly exceeding 150 mm in the next week. 

Detailed reasoning for the upcoming wet spell:

• A very strong Western Disturbance marked by a southward dipping trough in the subtropical jet stream is expected to persist over Rajasthan/Gujarat dropping south to 10°N over the Arabian Sea, drawing in a lot of moisture.
• Tracing the likely reason for upcoming strong WD trough...have to look at what is happening over Europe👇

• 200/250 hPa winds denote the Jet Stream Level in the atmosphere. Cut off low off the Spain coast...ridge over central Europe and a strong trough over eastern Mediterranean is seen as of today 3rd May.
• By 4th May...the trough over eastern Mediterranean gets amplified...forcing the Jet Stream to remain split across western India. A process called energy traveling through Group Velocity of the wave is likely to cause a new trough to develop downstream (further east of the parent trough) over the northwest part of India👇

• Eventually, the parent trough (T1) weakens and the newly developed trough (T2) is the stronger one. The subtropical westerly jet stream is split across the Indian subcontinent. T2 is very strong trough and dipping till 10°N latitude, very rare for early May. There will also be an embedded mid-upper level cyclonic circulation over Gujarat/Rajasthan. 
• T2 can persist for 4-5 days, giving rain/thunderstorms across Gujarat/Rajasthan, parts of Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, western UP and western Himalayas till about 11th/12th May👇

More updates on this upcoming rainy spell next week...