Friday, May 17, 2024

Monsoon Watch  4...17th May 2024

Monsoon2024 onset conditions for Andaman and Sri Lanka are seen in the vicinity over the next  4 days...21st May.


Mascarene High and cross equatorial flows in the Arabian Sea branch are disrupted by the Cyclone ( Ialy) off East Africa. 


But the Bay branch will pick up by 21st. and Bay onset vortex along the surge expected.

The Arabian Sea branch South West wind flow will stabilise rapidly after the Cyclone Ialy  fizzles out.

Still the core Seasonal Low is not ready due to " Weak heat " situation in Central


India.


The Jet streams are turning Favorably Easterlies around 10N, with tendency to become Easterlies upto 15N.

South West Monsoon expected in Kerala by 31st May/1st/2nd June.

South Maharashtra/Goa will see entry of SWM around 8th June.

Mumbai will enter Pre-monsoon showers phase by 1st week of June.

Proper Monsoon can enter Mumbai around 10th/12th June. 


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