Monsoon update 30/5/24

As per Vagaries' analysis, SW Monsoon conditions are likely to establish over south Kerala by 3rd June. 

Below forecast indicates westerly winds (although weak) up to 600 hPa over south Kerala region by 3rd June - this will satisfy the wind criteria for Monsoon onset.

At present, there is an East-West shear zone at mid levels (700 hPa), and westerly winds remain south of Kerala. 👇

Parts of Kerala, south interior and coastal Karnataka and interior Tamil Nadu regions are likely to receive thunderstorms from today 31st May till Sunday 2nd June. 

Places like Bengaluru and Mysuru regions can receive good thundershowers.

Belgaum/Dharwad/Hubli regions can receive thundershowers from tomorrow 1st June onwards, could get some heavy rain from 2nd to 5th June.

Mumbai: Warm and very humid weather for this weekend, with nights being warm around 29-30C. Pre-monsoon rain/thundershowers are likely from 3rd June onwards in Mumbai region.  

Thane and Navi Mumbai regions will also get thunderstorms from 3rd to 5th June. 

Pune: Days getting a bit hotter and uncomfortable from the weekend. Chances of thundershowers from 3rd June onwards. Next week could see some good thundershowers (some heavy) for many parts of Pune district. 

Goa: Pre-monsoon thundershowers likely from 1st to 5th June, with heavy showers in some areas.

Many districts of Madhya Maharashtra (Solapur, Kolhaur, Satara, Sangli, Ahilyanagar, Nashik) and Marathwada (Ch. Sambhajinagar, Jalna, Beed, Dharashiv, Nanded) can get pre-monsoon thundershowers from 3rd June onwards. Some southern districts bordering Karnataka can get thundershowers from evening/night of 2nd June.