Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Bengaluru city had the wettest May in recorded history by receiving a rainfall of 301.3 mm for the month thus year. The previous record of 287.1 mm was recorded in May 1957! The average rainfall for the month is 128.7 mm.

31st May..

Cloud buildup seen over the southern parts of Arabian Sea and Maldives region as the cross-equatorial winds entering the region and converging.

The region needs to be watched for possibility of low pressure development.

Early indications of a monsoon vortex formation in south Arabian sea is forming in a couple of days, 4th/5th June.

This will lead to the Monsoon advance into Kerala by 4th June.

This system, AS-1, can strengthen and form into a depression as it tracks NNW. Sea surface temperatures in South Arabian Sea of 30/31c presently are very conducive for the possibility of a cyclone forming ( early to commit now). The stronger system can track tentatively should be NNW toward Sindh coast.

As the AS-1 system tracks along the coast  we may see Monsoon progress, into Coastal Karnataka.

As the System veers NW. , the Monsoon onset over Goa and Konkan may be delayed to 13th/14th June. However, things are still uncertain.

Mumbai: Pre Monsoon evening showers possible from 7th/8th June. However, proper Monsoon set around 14th/15th June, seeing todays scenario. 

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  Posted 13th Night: Outlook for Sunday 14th to Wednesday 17th: An off shore trough along the West Coast is expected to bring good rainfall ...