Monday, May 22, 2023

 22nd May...

An Upper Air Circulation ( UAC) forms over South T.N.

Pre Monsoon Showers in Kerala today.

Kerala will continue to get daily sporadic  Showers till  Monsoon onset on June 1st week.

1 comment:

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of metereology

Issued Tuesday 23 May 2023

The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.

El Niño WATCH – eastern tropical Pacific warming but little atmospheric response

The Pacific Ocean is currently ENSO-neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño). While all international climate models indicate it is very likely that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter, an atmospheric response is also required for an El Niño to be declared. Thus far, little shift has been observed in atmospheric ENSO indicators with trade winds and cloudiness patterns in the Pacific remaining indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions.

The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. This indicates there is an increased risk of an El Niño occurring this year, at least double the usual chance.

El Niño typically suppresses rainfall in eastern Australia during the winter and spring months. The status of the ENSO Outlook does not change the Bureau's long-range forecast for drier and warmer conditions across much of Australia for winter. The Bureau's climate model takes into account all influences from the oceans and atmosphere when generating its long-range forecast.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All five models suggest that a positive IOD event could develop in winter. A positive IOD typically supresses winter and spring rainfall over much of Australia, and if it occurs with El Niño, it can exacerbate El Niño's drying effect. Long-range forecasts of IOD made at this time of the year have generally had low accuracy and thus should be viewed with caution beyond June.

A moderately strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse is moving over the Western Pacific region and is forecast to move into the central Pacific region in the coming days. If the MJO pulse maintains its strength and continues to track over the western or central Pacific, it would likely weaken trade winds across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This, in turn, would result in further warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and hence drive further development towards El Niño.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive and is expected to return to neutral towards the end of May.

During autumn SAM typically has a weaker influence on Australian rainfall, but as we approach winter, positive SAM often has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates. In April 2023, the global sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for that month, while for the Coral Sea SSTs were the 2nd-highest on record. The Australian continent has warmed by around 1.47 °C over the period 1910–2021.

There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10 to 20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.

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Next update expected by 6 June 2023

Forecast for Mumbai/Pune: Similar weather expected for Mumbai and Pune for Wednesday 17th April.  Mumbai: Hot daytime weather in Mumbai cit...