Posted 4th June Morning:
Brief analysis of present weather conditions:
The UAC over the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka/Goa coast is resulting in Thundershowers in these regions and adjoining Ghats. This is expected to fizzle out in the next 2-3 days.
The low pressure regions over the South Indian ocean are governing the wind flow of the Somali jet (850 hPa). This is resulting in weak westerlies over Kerala. As of June 3, the day started off warm in Kerala with thunderstorms formations being witnessed towards evening and night. The mentioned low pressure regions over the South Indian ocean are expected to drift away southeastward over the next 2-3 days.
Vagaries expects the westerlies along the southern Arabian Sea off Kerala coast to strengthen gradually and extend till 600 hPa by the weekend.
Situation is being monitored closely and once the defined criteria are met, we expect to announce SWM arrival over Kerala.
Another UAC to the east of Sri Lanka. may be affecting the wind pattern
Analysis contribution from Vagarian Shreyas Dhavale
This is Vagaries' views and may not tally with other agencies. Please refer to official announcements from Govt. Establishments.