Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Posted 5th May Afternoon:

Normally, a low pressure strengthens in the Bay around this time, 1st/2nd week of May. This heralds the SWM into the South Andaman Sea.
This year, a Low, BB-1 has formed,with very positive signs on the 2nd of May.But many parameters are now not favouring the system to strengthen. The MJO amplitude is less than 1
The 200 jet streams are very much South in trough formation, and the divergence is poor in them.
The SST gradient is not favourable.
Hence, we do not see the immediate strengthening of BB-1.

I wonder whether with these hindrances the system will strengthen at all, or take 3/4 days more. Depending on the "In Situ" situation.....or fizzle out ?

200 jet streams being in trough in the Southwards direction, is encouraging Back to back Western Disturbances. Causing the delay in heating of the Northern regions.

Monsoon Watch -3 on 7th May


Kaustubh said...

Sir is there any relations between jet streams blowing from west to east and low pressure systems in Bay of Bengal? I want to know this answer

Rajesh said...

Kaustubh: You find your answer in the MW-3 being published...otherwise ask me.

Kaustubh said...

Ok sir, I will wait for tomorrow's MW 3 edition

  Extremely impressive cold night in the tropics of Queensland, Australia 🇦🇺 While a minimum of 0.5°C (33°F) might not sound that impressi...