Saturday, May 23, 2020

Posted 23rd May Saturday Afternoon:

Mini Monsoon Watch-4:  

South West Monsoon

Bay Branch:...Latest lower and 850 wind charts show the Monsoon
2020 advancing into Andaman Islands as a weak current. The depth of the South West winds are not sufficient enough..(700 level winds not in position yet) over the Islands, hence current is weak.

 But we can advance it as the major 200 level jet streams are well positioned.

From Thai Met Office: "During 23 - 25 May, the southwest monsoon prevails over the Andaman Sea "

The Arabian Branch; Current Cross Equatorial winds in full swing.

The Somalia Current is gearing up, and reducing the SST at the Somalia coast at a fast rate...

Thus the formation of Cumulus and thicker clouds over the South West Arabian Sea is hastened.

Pre Monsoon showers in Maldives yesterday have precipitated 35 mms in Gan and 26 mms in Kaadhedhoo. Trace in Male.

Saturday 10.45 IST Satellite Image

Monsoon can move into Maldives region around 27th May.

After this , what we require is a gradient, pressure gradient. This will form with the NW heating more, and seasonal low forming to create a steep gradient from the Thar Region to South Kerala Seas.
Current Core Low around 1000/1002 hpa.
For this, the Friday 22nd May Day temperatures indicate the heating has started. 


sset said...

Like 2019 during start of SWM early June GUJ/RAJ got cyclone Vahyu....
Will this patternrepeat again for 2020 - increasing wetter GUJ trend ???

Will MAHA receive supper torrential extreme rains like 2019 -> june - november, world wettest place?

Some of major concerns for India wettest city - Mumbai -> Monsoon rains increase Influenza Virus, along with Covid-19 Virus - epidemiologists are still not sure impact on respiratory system.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Mini watch has all the major factors covered. Thanks for a wonderful and to the point update.

sset said...

Great explanation with supporting graphs and maps !

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