This is our view and should not be used commercially. It is subject to change.
Several factors show uncertainty in Monsoon arrival schedule..Like running WDs keeping the temperatures in the North under control and keeping the seasonal Low around 1004 mb, Bay situation fluid with less SST gradient and irregular winds. Cross Equatorial winds still weak and also 200 jet streams showing deep Southerly trough.
Keeping this in consideration, Vagaries gives the expected dates of arrival of the South WEst Monsoon this year.