Saturday, September 16, 2017

Posted 16th Friday Noon (IST): 

Saturday 16th: Cloudy day with showers, more towards Southern areas. Thunder Showers likely in late evening /Night. Some areas will get heavy showers. Amount of average rainfall on Saturday-Saturday  night will be around 40-50 mms.
Sunday 17th: Cloudy/maybe sunny periods in the morning. Thunder Showers later in the day. Heavy local patches may bring 50-60 mms in some areas.
Monday 18th: Cloudy with increase in rainfall. Intermittent showers with thunder. 
Monday 18th: Heavy Thunder showers in suburbs may bring patchy flooding in some vulnerable areas. 70-80 mms expected.  Monday being working day , hopefully no commuting problem should arise.
Tuesday 19th: Decrease in rainfall intensity.

Pune : Heavy showers expected on Monday. Cool day.

Heavy Rainfall expected in this time period in South Konkan.

Conditions apt for Withdrawal of South West Monsoon From Extreme West Rajasthan and Kutch in next 48 hrs.


Cumulus arjun said...

Good moderate rains now in Goregaon Mumbai

Sunny said...

Getting dark n gloomy ...expecting heavy rains vasai

Unknown said...

Punjab, Haryana and other states facing severe rain deficit which may affect Food output. Hope the monsoon stays a bit longer to help the farmers there.


Unknown said...

Rajesh sir,what about the weather in Nagothane,roha from sun-tuesday

Hrishikesh said...

Sir no rain after 1pm sunny in western suburbs hope to get Good thunderstorms soon

Salim Ramani , Jabalpur said...

Rajesh Sir
Please share something about East M.P , Rain or Withdrawal ?
An agency say that there will be rain in central india in next week .
What is your view ?
Thanks & Regards

Saurabh said...

Hello Rajesh
A forecast question for you.

Northern plains have not received much rain this September. There is no change expected in this pattern in the coming week. One would expect that this dry spell will be followed by the monsoon withdrawal.

Some weather models are forecasting a surprising turnaround in terms of rainfall in the last week of September.These models are forecasting widespread rainfall(10 cm) almost over the entire northern plains. Such amounts over this entire area at this time of the year after such a long dry spell will be quite a turnaround if it happens.

I have seen that many a times these forecasts don't materialise at all.

It will be great if you can study the situation and tell us what you think is likely to happen.

Thanks and Regards

sset said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

Heavy rains since last 1 hour in Goregaon ..seems will last for the night

Rohit Aroskar said...

IMD Scz 32 mms, Andheri 65 mms

Rohit Aroskar said...

Vihar(Mumbai) crossed 4000 mms seasonal rainfall

Cumulus arjun said...

Raining heavily since last 1 hour in Goregaon

Vijayanand said...

" gone are days when September monsoon axis used to come down to give good rains over southern India "
Ignorant comments.....many parts of bangalore recorded more than 300 mm in September. Not just bangalore , but also North Interior TN , Mandya and Mysore got very good rains.

First check facts before posting.

Vijayanand said...


Vijayanand said...

Light to moderate rain in Bangalore since this morning. Clouds coming in from west.

Vijayanand said...

"Climates are changing - gone are days when September monsoon axis used to come down to give good rains over southern India - it needs to happy with thunders."

Hahhahha..too much burnol impact
Super rain in southern peninsula from Aug 15 to September 10th.
Infact has still not stopped.

Unknown said...

Smashing rains across Kerala and many regions in TN. Contrary to the misleading information by one person here, this has been a fabulous SW Monsoon for most Southern Regions. It is North West India and some regions of MP which are deficient.

Rajesh, I have a genuine suggestion. Your blog is now well respected and read internationally. But when there are repeated non factual comments, please delete this or maybe provide your counter version which would be reliable. Else this provides a misrepresentation to the readers. I am very open to freedom of speech but when that freedom is taken advantage of wrongly, it should be curtailed whether it's me or anyone else. So request you to step in. I notice that while you react to most comments, in this case you never react in any way except posting it. So just in case this blog is indebted to this person for some reason that we readers may not be aware of, I would fully understand your situation. Would have no qualms then.


sset said...

Massive extreme rains for entire MAHA/ Konkan from 19,20,21,22 -> IMD has hosted red-alert in advance.

sset said...

How much IMD holds true needs to be seen(for extreme rains....). But for Kerala heavy rains was badly required to cover deficiency - must be first spell of 200mm+ rains. Wayanad /Cauvery regions require huge spells..

Saurabh said...

All in all, south India has had a very good South West Monsoon.

I believe you are originally from South India. I don't understand why it is so hard for you to appreciate this good news coming out of South India. Cherish the moment, thank Mother Nature and enjoy the Mumbai rains. Now that the quantum of rain in not an issue with regard to South India you are complaining about the nature of rain(oh it rained but it was accompanied by thunder). Frankly plants, rivers and lakes don't care that the rain was accompanied by thunder.

Regarding desertification.
IMD web site can give you the rainfall figures of all regions for the last 10 years(even more if you reach out to Rajesh and other readers of this blog). You can take the rainfall for Karnataka, Gujarat and Maharashtra and calculate the average for the last 10 or 20 years and compare it to the average rainfall for the period before that. This will take not more than 2-3 hours of your valuable time. Then you can share these numbers with all of us and the numbers will tell us if there is desertification going on or not. I and some others have done this Math and even shared it but you chose to not comment on it. So please assert with facts and data. That all I and many others are asking for.

Regarding Water Shortage.
But there is water shortage, water tables are going down so surely there is desertification going on. The short answer is no. There is no connection between the two.

We are over populated, we don't manage our water resources well, we are using more water than nature can replenish so water tables are going down. We grow paddy in Punjab. We grow sugar cane in arid regions. If we continue like this we will face a water crisis but lets not blame climate for that without any evidence.


Rajesh said...

Suresh: Thanks a lot for the kind words and compliments about our Vagaries...the popularity and readership is all thanks to you all readers and contributors.
Yes, the freedom of open speech is always better and even if repeatative comments are put up, I do not generally delete them as long as they are no personal or direct accusation comments. Repeating frequently speaks and is indicative of limited matter to state , or limited knowledge or "would like to comment but have nothing new to say".
I have personally told SSET ( in my comments on vagaries) to reveal his identity, as i would like all of us to know each other by name, and personally address each other by our names. It brings more closeness. NO hidden identities. It worked for e few comments !:-)
Thanks for your concern...hope you understand my patience and mature tolerance.

Unknown said...

Thank you Rajesh. As always a very clear and coherent response. Really appreciate your patience and tolerance. I really hope some sense prevails after all this sincere and multiple advice. Thanks again Rajesh.


Evewrest said...

Good rains in Kerala.. At least it won't end in a deficit this time. I believe one reason why Wayanad is showing so low rainfall is that Pookot has not been recording any data for quite some time. With the Pookot data, the rainfall figures in Wayanad would have gone up. But it still wouldn't be enough to cover up for the huge deficit it is still showing.

The Southern peninsula has been doing fairly well for at least the last one month. It has recovered all its losses to date for the monsoon. Of course, it still has the most rainfall remaining for the rest of the year. So it still has to perform to reach its annual quota of rainfall. Cauvery basin is 4% above normal for the monsoon so far, so it's doing OK.

I'm a little pessimistic about NW India recovering from its deficit. It's already time for the withdrawal to start from the region. Luckily, it's only down 5% for the year due to decent rains before monsoon.

The region with the largest deficit for the year, however, is Central India. The region is down 11% for the year. We probably have about 4 weeks to go before the rains really drop off. Unless we get some real heavy rainfall for Central India, it will be down quite a bit at the end of the year.

Aks said...

Unlike what one blogger is always mentioning: Central India is having higher deficit than South India as on date. In superstitious parlance, we may see 'kisi ek aadmi ki nazar lag gayi'... I agree with Suresh that although freedom of speech is required, it cannot be taken as the excuse for posting non factual comments. This defeats entire purpose of an informed blog or news piece.

Hope Central India & NW India recover from deficit in 11-12 days left for this beautiful season to end!!!

Posted Thursday 29th January afternoon: Mumbai/Pune Outlook for 21st Friday/22nd Saturday/23rd Sunday: Mumbai - Pleasant Friday with max/min...