Sunday, September 20, 2015

Posted Monday Night:
BB-6 merges in the seasonal Low as mentioned earlier...

(Forecast Chart)
Average Pressure in Kutch stations is 999 mb, and the Low seems to have merged in the seasonal Low as we see Bikaner  pressure at 998 mb. and Jaisalmer at 1000 mb.

And The other Low from Bay moves inland into Jharkhand

Middle Vaitarna Overflows..Water Diverted to Modak Sagar...See Mumbai Lakes Storage on Mumbai Page

Posted Sunday 20thNight:
Outlook for Next Few days:
Mumbai: Subsequent to a few Showers on Monday (5-10 mms), rainfall decreases to a few mms and sunny days from Tuesday.

Stray Thunder showers continue in Saurashtra, Parts of Kutch and North Gujarat regions on Monday.
Surat and Bharuch can get few showers on Monday, but, rains become very less from Tuesday, with days temperatures rising a bit. 
New Delhi: Thunder showers on Monday and Tuesday in many regions of NCR. Average rains around 15-20 mms/day.
Kolkata: Stray "hit and miss" thunder showers in many parts of City .
Some regions of Sindh get rains as BB-6 moves.Rain showers in many regions on Monday also. Westwards..towards the seasonal Low. 
Chorre received 40 mms in 3 hrs on Sunday evening.
Karachi: Temperatures have shot up to 42.5c last 2 days. Light rains expected on Monday, and a slight fall in temps.

SWM Performance Improves in Central India
SWM deficit on 20th September is -14%.
Marathwada shrinks to - 34% (19th)  from - 42% on 16th September.
Madhya Maharashtra is deficit at -28% (20th), down from -36% on 16th .
Vidharbha was -17% on 16th and currently at a comfortable -8%.
Konkan which was -32% on 16th is still around -31%

Compare the Change in the Last 5 Days (Between 14th and 19th Sept)....Blue= Excess, Green= Normal and Red= Deficient
Click on Pic

Day's Rainfall in Central Region on 20th September...


NilaY Wankawala said...

Wonderfully presented as always...sir one apology. ..don't knw whether right platform to say but will not be able to attend 26th sept meet at thana... being Chartered Accountant in practice too much pressure this time to finish the audits by deadline 30 09 sorry in spite of your invite would not be able to mark my presence there..sorry again sir.

Rajesh said...

Vagaries Blog Country wise (Top 8) hits on Sunday ( Last 20 hrs as on 11.30 pm IST)...
India 2825
United States 402
Pakistan 135
Singapore 34
Saudi Arabia 27
United Arab Emirates 25
Thailand 22
Australia 18

Vinod Desai said...

Helo sir,
A new low in bay.what are your views. Or is it too early to forecast the path.

Vijayanand said...

Rains predicted in bangalore from 23th as per accu and wunderground. TS week starting soon.

Abhijit Modak said...

Some places in Kutch & Saurashtra received heavy rainfall in last 24 hrs ending 8.30am today(21-09-2015):

Mandvi, Kutch 139mm
Dhoraji,Rajkot 125mm
Una,Gir 117mm
Gondal,Rajkot 116mm
Kalavad,Jamnagar & Kalyanpur,Dwarka 108mm
Gir 105mm
Mangrol ,Junagadh 103mm

Vinod Desai said...

We got a very Heavy Shower for around 30-40 minutes at around 6 pm in western suburb of mumbai.

Unknown said...

heavy rains at Goregaon .. from the last 45 min.. hope it continues longer

sset said...

Lucky MAHA/GUJ for 2015 SWM recipient of all BAY lows, AS lows. Good monsoon season for RAJ, MP - defying all principles of EL-NINO. By this time last year 2014 monsoon was retreating and warm conditions started prevailing over MAHA.

Just wondering how do we interpret - low over GUJ merges with seasonal low over Sindh. Because monsoon withdrawl has commenced over west RAJ with formation of anticyclone/high pressure then how come we say seasonal low over sindh. Apologies if question sound weird.

By the way heavy lashing rains in Navi Mumbai in parallel with Ganesh immersion. reminds me of sept 2013 deluge...

Rajesh said...

Yes, many western Suburbs got a heavy shower around 6.30 pm Monday...No rain in central and South Mumbai....average should be around 10 mms i think by tonite.

sset: If you remember, i had mentioned that as the Monsoon withdraws (refer old post), the core of the seasonal low shifts northwards. But the extended regions of outer low isobars naturally remain around the Sindh and regions. Map will be put up on blog tonite showing the merger of the Low.

Rajesh said...

sset: The seasonal Low is already weak, not in the "full strength" as in June...and initially on withdrawal, the anti cyclone starts at 850 level.
The Low will interact, or is interacting with the WD, now seen as a Rossby Wave...

Rajesh said...

Please Note Vagaries App from Play Store is not being supported any more.
Please visit in your browser since it is now formatted for mobile screens.
To add Vagaries as a short cut to your smart phone home screen, please follow steps as mentioned;
1. Open in Google Chrome.
2. Click on Menu (3 dots in top right corner).
3. Click on "add to home screen"
4. This will create a short cut for vagaries on your home screen.
If you need assistance, please ask.

  4th October  The subtropical ridge continues to extend further east from the Arabian peninsula towards most parts of North west and west c...