Guys: Just made and posted a new (incomplete ) page on our new Extremes blog..its on cold waves...its not complete as many more records and events are still pending for posting..slowly and steadily...:)
http://vagariesmum.blogspot.in/


See Micro Weather "demonstration" Pic on Current Weather Page..

And, now cloudings over Western Raj and Kutch. Cities in Pak Punjab and Balochistan received between 20-50 mms rainfall. 
Lahore and Faisalabad chilled at 12c and Islamabad is raining at 10c.
Amritsar absolutely cold with rains since afternoon, and now evening temperature at 13c ( 7.00 pm)..
D-3 moving East into Punjab, Kashmir and HP on schedule...


Karachi got a light thunderstorm early Thursday morning...currently ,at 9.00 am it is cloudy and drizzling. vagaries had forecasted "light showers" for Karachi from Wednesday evening into Thursday....Tyrone, latest report awaited

D-3 precipitated good snowfall in Balochistan on Wednesday, with Quetta receiving 12 mms till morning. Islamabed too had light rains.

On schedule for Thursday's Forecast, and the Islamabad- Lahore belt is also under heavy clouding now. Upper regions have reported good snowfall, and Multan and Mianwali recieved showers. Sukkur is cloudy...

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D-2, now over the Northern Indian region is moving away eastwards. The anti cyclone over central India has moved SE , and by tomorrow would be over the AP coastline.

Wednesday 12th: 
It is expected that major precipitation ( from D-2) in the Punjab, Haryana and West UP region will cease from Tuesday night, and mild snow/rain continues in HP, Kashmir and Western Utteranchal and Western Nepal till Thursday. 
The Southern gangetic W.Bengal region, Orissa and adjoining Jharkahnd continues to get rain or thundershowers in isolated pockets. 
On Wednesday, Kolkata can expect the rains/thundershower in some parts of city, a hit and miss chance, to continue till Thursday. High temperatures as far as night temperatures are concerned. 

D-3, the next in line, is seen on Tuesday as a trough South of the Caspian Sea. 
The WD, as it moves eastwards, will host an induced low over the Balochistan/upper Sindh region on Wednesday. 
As it approaches the Pakistan region, Wednesday sees precipitation in Balochistan and upper Sindh. Northern Pakistan gets snow on Wednesday.
Karachi will also get cloudy weather and light showers from Wednesday evening into Thursday. 

Thursday 13th: Heavier rains, with some heavy showers in the Islamabad-Lahore belt. 
Rains spreading to India in Kashmir, HP, Punjab and N. Haryana. Snow bountiful in Kashmir and HP. along the SW line, some light rains expected in Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch. 
Western Nepal gets a dose of snow/rains.
D-3 may not have effect on Delhi NCR in precipitations. Only cloudy weather.

Friday 14th: Heavy precipitation in the hill states. Western Nepal too gets a continuation of snow/rains.

Mumbai: Wed/Thursday/Friday will have partly cloudy nights with low clouds. Nights will be dropping by 2c to around 15/16c(Scruz) and days around 28/29c.

Pune: Clear with fall in night temperatures. Nights will be around 10c. next 2 nights and could drop to 9c on Thursday.

Main Concentration on the North:

D-1 is moving across the Pakistan Sindh region and Northern areas. Most of the Balochistan and Sindh region are cloudy, with the trough bringing in moisture from the SW. No substantial rain reports are in yet.
D-1 will normally move NE now, and on Friday, bring rain/snow to Northern Pakistan, moderate rains to Upper Sindh and Pak Punjab. Cloudy weather for rest of Sindh and Karachi on Friday, with the city seeing rise in night temperatures.

D-1 will effect the Indian regions from Saturday. Initially with rain/snow in Kashmir and HP. Saturday/Sunday will be cloudy, with light rain in Punjab and parts of Haryana.

Delhi NCR will be partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday, with rise in night temperatures to 10c/11c.  NCR starts clearing from Sunday evening. Night temperatures will drop from Monday morning.
We cannot expect extreme cold yet, as back to back we may have D-2 coming.
D-1 has no effect in Nepal.

Another WD, D-2, which will arrive in Balochistan on the 12th, will be stronger, and should have its effect in precipitation from Karachi to Northern regions of Pakistan. Moving into India from the 13th/14th, will have good effect in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi NCR. 

Currently, Western coast off shore trough, is pushing in some high clouding into Mah, which on inter acting with a warm front, is likely to bring light rains to Madhya Mah (Pune) and some pockets in N.Konkan and adjoining Gujarat coast and parts of Saurashtra. Clouds will clear off by Sunday. 

Nagpur and adjoining Vid gets cloudy on Monday 10th with moderate rains. Rains move NE into Chattisgarh and into Kolkata by Monday evening or by Tuesday 11th. Kolkata can get some rains on Monday evening or Tuesday.

Mumbai City: Cloudy with high clouds and warm and stuffy till Saturday night. Clouds clear by Sunday, and day temperatures leave the mid 30s range and return to 30/31c level from Sunday. Night temperatures drop from Sunday night. 
Currently at 22/23c, will be back to 19/21c by Monday morning.

Pune sees cloudy weather till Sunday, and fall in night temperatures by 6c, from the current 18c levels by Monday morning. Crisp cold mornings next week.

Detailed publications will not be put up till Monday evening, as author is travelling. Brief informations will be posted. 

Mumbai will be partly cloudy on Wednesday and Thursday. Warm day again..Winter takes back seat for the next few days.
Light rains possible in vicinity on Thursday.


Pune gets cloudy weather and light rains on Thursday..

Nagpur get spell of rain on Monday 10th.

Possibility of some rain for Kolkata on Tuesday, 11th December..
Karachi may see light rains on Mon or Tuesday..chances 50%..
of-course more later..

Trough thru South India shown below on Sat image, is moving Westwards. Currently over the Interiors of Karnataka and Kerala, just inland off the coastline. This trough has an UAC now embedded in it in the Southern most regions. 

Trough expected to shift West, with clouding spreading Northwards from Interior Karnataka. 

A warm front is pushing westwards, creating alto-cumulus and stratus clouds along the trough line.

This development could fall in line with the last forecast put up for Mon/Tue/Wed....system shifting into the Arabian Sea !

New Delhi Sjing low was 6.5c, Palam was 7.4c and lowest in NCR Hindon was 4.9c.

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BB-12. the short lived system, has weakened, and on Monday afternoon, is  at 1007 mb, NE off Sri Lanka.

The location has been drawn and imposed on the IMD Sat image, with the trough running through the Southern Peninsula also shown.

NW  quadrant shows clouding and the winds are still at around 20 knts. Due to this, scattered showers along TN coast, with a few heavy in pockets, by Monday evening. 
The reflectivity image based on the dbZ, shows a sharp decline by Monday evening.  

The system will merge into the trough. While moving West, some precipitation in the Southern tip of India region and S.I. Karnataka.

1. Cold still persists in Pakistan plains, with the lowest in Sibbi at -0.5c. 
Islamabad dropped to 2.5c, Hyderabad was 11.5c and Karachi was 13.5c. (All on expected lines).The current temperatures in Sindh will persist for another 24 hrs, and rise by 1/2c from Tuesday. 

NW and Northern Indian plains did experiance a drop in night temperatures with Sunday morning showing fall by about 2/3 c in many places. 
The lowest expected by vagaries in Rajasthan was 3/4c, and Churu in Rajasthan saw the lowest at 3.9c. Vagaries had expected Delhi to touch around 8c, it was 7.8c, and Punjab as expected hovered around 6/7c.

For Northern Indian plains, the current level of minimum temperatures will sustain till Tuesday morning. With dry weather and slight rise of 1/2c in night temperatures on Wednesday.

2. On Sunday evening, BB-12,  the Bay Low is located at 11N and 85E, with pressure at 1006 mb. Core winds are less than 20 knts, but outer NE winds along North TN coast likely to be 25 knts bt Monday.
System will track West, and maybe deepen to 1004 mb, before crossing North TN coast on Monday evening.
Chennai gets its expected showers from Monday thru Tuesday. Rain slips into Bangalore from Monday evening.

Around 4th/5th December, the pulse enters the Arabian Sea off Kerala. It will sustain as a low at around 1006 mb off Kerala. System will move a bit North upto South Karnatak/Kerala coast on the 5th and dissolve. 

3. Forecast for Monday 3rd/Tuesday 4th/Wednesday 5th:

Mumbai City: Winds change to a "warm " N/NE from Monday. This will bring about a rise in the day temperatures , which could be around 33c on Monday and 34/35c on Tuesday. The humidity level can drop to 40%, making it slightly "comfortable" (if we can say so). Nights will be around 19c on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday in Scruz and 21/22c at Colaba.

Outer townships too will see warmer days Monday thru Wednesday.

Pune will be around 30/31c on Mon/Tuesday/Wednesday, with the night temperature around 12c first 2 nights and rising to 14c on Wednesday morning. Slightly cloudy from Tuesday.

Monday could see some light rain (drizzles) in coastal Gangetic Bengal.
Kolkata will be partly cloudy with high clouds,  but Tuesday and Wednesday will be clear. Night temperatures around 16/17c for Kolkata next 3 nights.

Kathmandu is around 3.5/4.0c as the minimum temperature. With no effective system around, the weather will remain around the 19-4 range next 3 days.