Tuesday, February 06, 2024

Extended Outlook For Summer and Partly for Monsoon for Gujarat and Maharashtra.

At its Meeting on 4th February,  (Actual and Virtual) Vagaries' discussed the possible weather expected in Gujarat and Maharashtra State Regions this summer 2024.

There is much hype going on that 2024 could be the hottest year on record...now let us analyze the probability;

Note: After a certain agency announced that 2023 was the hottest year, Vagaries displayed a chart of several other agencies, which showed much variation to the statement.


1.Moderate El Nino effect in February/March/April: : An early summer is expected from late February thru April. Above normal temperatures expected in March and April. 

In March itself, or even late February, Interior Konkan may see the mercury touching 40c.


This excessive heating may see temperatures rising in April in excess of.41/42c in Vidharbh and parts of Madhya Maharashtra.

Above normal rise in Interior Saurashtra and South Gujarat Region in Mid March thru April.

2. The unusual heating may bring local Thunder showers in Mid March to Madhya Maharashtra(Pune, Satara, Sangli, Kohlapur).

As a Line of Wind dis-Continuity forms in Central Maharashtra, more ( Pre Monsoon) Thundershowers can be expected in Mid April in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada.


Thundershowers may pop up in pockets in Saurashtra around April.

3. El Nino effect decreases, to become weak El Nino from May/June/July;  Probably we may see the extreme above normal summer easing, becoming milder from May.

May could be around Normal/above normal, Summer temperatures. As studies have shown that the entire summer suceeding a strong El Niño has generally, to some extent, a little above normal temperatures in most of India.

4. Decaying of El Nino and strengthening La Nina:   Maharashtra and Gujarat (Barring Kutch)..... Now this shows a good indication of a normal -Good Monsoon. As the El Nino decays, the South West Monsoon get normal to above normal from July.

The overall Northern Hemisphere Summer will not be severe from June -August, thus reducing chances of a record heat year.

This Long Term Estimate is based on the studies by Vagaries' study and not binding or should not be solely taken for commercial purposes. 

There may be variations in the outlook in the forthcoming Months.

 


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