14th November:
IMD mentions a low pressure area to have formed in southeastern Bay of Bengal.
Vagaries' view is that a broad region of vorticity/wind circulation is seen developing over southern Bay of Bengal (BB-12), and the low pressure may eventually strengthen to a depression by tomorrow night. It can have an elongated structure in north-south direction by tomorrow.
Two regions of increased vorticity in the Bay, can merge to become an elongated low pressure circulation
BB-12 may intensify into a cyclone, but the subtropical westerly jet stream at 200 hPa is dipping southwards, and this will cause southerly/southwesterly wind shear over the system, with clouds getting pulled northwards.
Odisha/West Bengal coasts may receive moderate to heavy rain during 16th-17th November.
The ICC Cricket World Cup semifinal match at Kolkata can be affected by rain.
Below forecasts from IMD GFS highlighting the approx wind pattern and rain.
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