Monsoon Watch - 3..2023...28th April
Current Scenario of Developing Parameters:
1.Indicator: Eastern Bay Branch -ve
2. Core Pressure of Seasonal Low persisting at 1004 hpa...( For similar comparisons of some previous years:1004hpa in 2014, 1000hpa in 2015, 1002 hpa in 2016 on same end April dates.)
3.The NW plains heating picked up initially, but stabilised again, as WDs started streaming in.
IMD has estimated this years Monsoon quantum at around 96% +- 5% of the normal. That would mean in normal range.
Other competent Forecasters have indicated a weaker Monsoon.
Monsoon Watch is reflecting Vagaries' views..Monsoon Watch should not be used/depended upon commercially or otherwise. Monsoon Watch Series may differ from other models.