Posted 25th August afternon:

Second time in this month  monsoon is observing ‘break’ conditions. (A prolonged break earlier in the 1st fortnight has already occurred over many parts of the country.) 

 Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab and Odisha have been impacted largely during this phase. (Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal have been the beneficiary and received moderate rains)

Despite rains over east and northeast India, the rainfall deficiency has risen to -9% and can reach -10% in a day or two. 

This August is heading for one of the worst hit monsoon month and can draw parallel with August 2009, a severe drought year.

 

Deficiency  in the main  monsoon month like August can adversely impact the seasonal performance.

Consolation: A cyclonic circulation is expected to form over Northwest Bay of Bengal on 27 th August. This system will pull the eastern end of monsoon trough southward and can reverse ‘break monsoon’ conditions. 

This cyclonic circulation will deepen and may turn into a low pressure area before moving inland on 30th August. 

The weather system will revive the monsoon activity around the weekend.