Posted 11th Sunday Afternoon:
BB-10 has become a Depression at 15N and 86.5E...now moving inland as a Deep Depression.
Tracking West thru A.P/Telengana/Marathwada...1th thru 14th.
Heavy falls for Marathwada, Telangana, A.P and N.I. Karnataka.
Squally winds off Coastal A.P. and Odisha.
Mumbai/Pune: Wet week ahead. Monsoon re-grouping from Mid Week...good rains expected to increase from Tuesday onwards.
Pune: Very heavy rains on 14th/15th..100 mms ?
Panvel/Nagothane: Thunder showers on Wednesday, particularly heavy on Thursday15th...crops , if harvested will have to be covered securely. But if heavy, rains may damage standing crop
Mumbai / MAHA huge climate change same goes to GUJ - increasing wetter.
Mumbai from classic average of 2500mm may reach 4000mm!
I remember in early 70s,80s,90s - after 4months of torrential rains (june-sept) in Mumbai after Ganapati - rains used to stop. Oct was like 2nd summer - people used to make papads in sun. Since 2000s SWM is extending till NOV-DEC (after north bay lows we have AS lows) - leaving little place for NEM.
Climate Driver Update Credit Australian Government Bureau of metereology latest issued 13 10 2020
La Niña likely to continue through summer 2020−21
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.
ENSO Outlook dial showing LA NIÑA status
Current status: LA NIÑA
A La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific. All surveyed international climate models indicate this La Niña will persist through the southern hemisphere summer 2020–21.
Most models suggest the La Niña will strengthen, peaking in December. Around half the models anticipate a strong event, meaning there is a possibility it could reach similar strength to the La Niña of 2010–12. However, models forecast this event will be shorter, possibly ending in the first quarter of 2021. The strength of La Niña impacts on Australia are often related to the strength of the event.
Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures remain around La Niña thresholds (0.8 °C below average) and atmospheric indicators, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloud, are also at La Niña levels.
La Niña typically increases the chance of above average rainfall across much of Australia during spring. Above average summer rainfall is also typical across eastern Australia. Current climate outlooks indicate November 2020 to January 2021 will be wetter than average for much of the country.
In the Indian Ocean, there has been significant warming of sea surface temperatures in the west of the Basin over the past fortnight. Models have reduced the likelihood of a negative IOD event in 2020, noting that the IOD typically breaks down in late spring or early summer.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is expected to be positive for the remainder of October. La Niña tends to favour positive SAM during spring and summer, further enhancing the wet signal in the east.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in the Maritime Continent and is expected to increase in strength as it moves into the Western Pacific Ocean.
Climate change is also influencing the Australian climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.4 °C since 1910, while southern Australia has seen a 10–20% reduction in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
Looks like drought for Tamil Nadu / South Andhra - Rayalseema, Anantapur, Chittor - NEM is not picking up due to SWM extensions + north bay systems.
IMD red alert for MAHA + GUJ (back to rains)
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