Posted 21st October 1 pm:
Weather for Marathwada: Monsoon will be over for Marathwada from 24th October. Clear skies with morning fog.
Gujarat: South West Monsoon on the way out now, and complete withdrawal from State by 23rd. Till then , light showers in South Gujarat coast (Surat/Valsad).
Bharuch has seen the last of rains and Monsoon retreating now.
South west Monsoon to retreat from Gujarat and M.P. and North Chhattisgarh by 23rd.
Kolkata: Moderate showers Wed/Thu/ Friday and Saturday 24th.
Mumbai & Pune: Likely hood of thunder shower in some parts of city on Wednesday 21st and Thursday 22nd.
Rainfall substantial decrease from Friday and Monsoon retreating after 24th October.
Drop in Night temperatures below 19c in Pune.
Goa: Light to moderate continue with around 7-10 mms/day this week.
BB-12 has formed as a Low in the region 16N and 87 E. Likely to deepen to depression level and Move North initially and then N/NE. Towards Bengal.
OK. Rajesh, putting you on the spot.
As per IMD, the monsoon withdrawal line today moved from east of Lucknow to western Assam.
Most parts of north east Uttar Pradesh have not received any rain in October but the IMD withdrawal criteria was not being met so far, even though the rainfall had stopped in September in these parts of UP, the monsoon withdrawal was not declared. So we have a very rigid criteria being applied so far but all this changes suddenly.
Now as per IMD, overnight the monsoon withdrawal line goes from eastern up to western Assam even though there is no drastic change in weather in the last few days and a low from the bay is about to give rain to some of these parts from which monsoon has been officially withdrawn by IMD today.
Isn't this arbitrary?
Saurabh: You are absolutely correct in your observations..And correctly stated "As per IMD" by you.
Now, if you follow Vagaries, we have not shifted the Monsoon Withdrawal Line after 8th October. To this day, our withdrawal line covers hlf of U.P.
We have kept in mind the movements of BB-10, BB-11, and accordingly stationed the withdrawal.
Now, as mentioned in the latest post, Vagaries sees withdrawal from Gujarat and M.P. and rest U.P. very soon..in a few days.
Please note these are Vagaries' views.
Makes perfect sense. Thanks Rajesh.
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