| MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2017 TO 31-7-2017) | ||
| TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-7-2017) | 460.20 | |
| SEASON +/- | 1.63% | |
| TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER required rainfall per day-------> | mm | |
| MINIMUM 700 mm | 3.93 | |
| AVERAGE 890 mm | 7.05 | |
| MAXIMUM 1100 mm | 10.49 | |
| CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY | 7.54 mm | |
| HIGHEST RAINFALL DAY THIS SEASON | 24th JULY | 14.7 mm |
| LOWEST RAINFALL DAY THIS SEASON | 5th JUNE | 1.2 mm |
| TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS MONTH | mm | |
| KONKAN & GOA | 1092.50 | |
| COASTAL KARNATAKA | 824.20 | |
| GUJARAT REGION | 611.80 | |
| JHARKHAND | 489.40 | |
| GANGETIC WEST BENGAL | 488.60 | |
| BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS MONTH | mm | |
| MARATHWADA | 83.10 | |
| N. I. KARNATAKA | 77.30 | |
| HAR. CHD & DELHI | 69.20 | |
| RAYALASEEMA | 52.20 | |
| TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY | 42.00 | |
| TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017) | Actual (mm) | |
| WEST RAJASTHAN | 301.6 | 127.00% |
| SAURASHTRA & KUTCH | 451 | 64.00% |
| GUJARAT REGION | 749.1 | 59.00% |
| EAST RAJASTHAN | 382.4 | 33.00% |
| JAMMU & KASHMIR | 336.9 | 31.00% |
| BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017) | Actual (mm) | |
| WEST UTTAR PRADESH | 260.7 | -21.00% |
| TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY | 89.9 | -21.00% |
| ARUNACHAL PRADESH | 811.6 | -22.00% |
| KERALA | 959.5 | -30.00% |
| S. I. KARNATAKA | 235.2 | -34.00% |
| TOP TEN DISTRICTS THIS MONTH | mm | |
| SIROHI (rajasthan) | 1568.5 | |
| EAST KHASI HILLS (meghalaya) | 1435.7 | |
| DADAR & NAGAR HAVELI (union territory) | 1295.6 | |
| VALSAD (gujarat) | 1278 | |
| RAIGARH (maharashtra) | 1256.8 | |
| PALGHAR (maharashtra) | 1235 | |
| UDUPI (karnataka) | 1153.2 | |
| THANE (maharashtra) | 1151 | |
| RATNAGIRI (maharashtra) | 1092.9 | |
| LUNGLEI (mizoram) | 1078 | |
| BOTTOM TEN DISTRICTS THIS MONTH | mm | |
| PERAMBALUR (tamil nadu) | 12.5 | |
| FIROZPUR (punjab) | 12.3 | |
| ERODE (tamil nadu) | 12.3 | |
| DINDIGUL (tamil nadu) | 10 | |
| TIRUPPUR (tamil nadu) | 9.4 | |
| YAMUNANAGAR (harayana) | 6.9 | |
| LEH AND LADAKH (Jammu & kashmir) | 6.2 | |
| TIRUNELVELI (tamil nadu) | 5.3 | |
| TUTICORIN (tamil nadu) | 1.9 | |
| SAIHA (mizoram) | 0 | |
| TOP TEN DISTRICTS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2017 TO 31-7-2017) | Actual (mm) | |
| JALOR (rajasthan) | 840.8 | 330.00% |
| SIROHI (rajasthan) | 1655.9 | 310.00% |
| BANASKANTHA (gujarat) | 1016.6 | 259.00% |
| BARMER (rajasthan) | 414.6 | 257.00% |
| PALI (rajasthan) | 662.4 | 202.00% |
| PATAN (gujarat) | 792.7 | 201.00% |
| GANDHINAGAR (gujarat) | 960.1 | 172.00% |
| MORBI (gujarat) | 738 | 165.00% |
| JAISELMER (rajasthan) | 204.9 | 160.00% |
| SURENDRANAGAR (gujarat) | 683.2 | 160.00% |
| BOTTOM TEN DISTRICTS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2017 TO 31-7-2017) | Actual (mm) | |
| DHARAMPURI (tamil nadu) | 42.5 | -68.00% |
| CHAMARAJANAGAR (karnataka) | 36.6 | -72.00% |
| PANCHKULA (harayana) | 117 | -73.00% |
| FIROZPUR (punjab) | 39.5 | -75.00% |
| SENAPATI (manipur) | 170 | -77.00% |
| THOUBAL (manipur) | 102 | -80.00% |
| SAIHA (mizoram) | 154 | -81.00% |
| DIBANG VALLEY (arunachal pradesh) | 106 | -84.00% |
| TUTICORIN (tamil nadu) | 3.1 | -87.00% |
| TAWANG (arunachal pradesh) | 149 | -89.00% |
| TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017) | 37 (61%) | |
| TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017) | 24 (39%) | |
| source: IMD |
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
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28 comments:
Thanks Rajesh Sir, Rohit and others for your comments on the previous blog post. I did that particular exercise just to highlight that comparing any two zones short term is self defeating because long term data can be used to prove otherwise. As the data suggests, SKI and K&G have a statistical relationship (they might not be linked to the same subsystem of monsoon but are part of the same seasonal phenomenon that starts in June and impacts the entire Indian subcontinent up to September). The very fact that a percentage relationship holds across three centuries (from the late 19th to early 21st century) shows that there is some significance to the comparison (Abhijit totally disagrees though :) ).
I request the readers of this blog to search for data of the district level of SI Karnataka and the Ghat sections of K&G , Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka. The data needs to be of at least 50 years or even more to get a meaningful analysis going between the ghats and the plains of south and western India.
Please provide link to such data online in the comments or copy paste it in text format here.
Gurvinder
Thanks for the data gsb sir
GSB Sir, As usual excellent analysis of Monsoon July figures.
Yes, me disagrees because Konkan vs SI.Kar is not logical way for analyzing. As technically monsoon windward vs leeward comparison can't be possible so it is insult of Konkan indirectly ! but ya due to sset's always useless comparison between both divisions, we needed it to demolish his own theory by presenting facts to him.
And yes Maharashtra ghat vs Karnataka ghat or Konkan vs Coastal Kar comparison looks valid as both are windward west coast region and also top performer sub divisions in monsoon season to know whether really one's rain increasing or decreasing
Amazing!Rajasthan district on top of rainfall chart
Nice Analysis..
Mount Abu (Sirohi district),the hill station of Rajasthan .. This time it notched up around 3000 mms in July (1500 mms in 2 days )!! But it is also a part of rainfall variability of the state ..
In the Thar desert, the highest annual rainfall has been at Sam (Jaisalmer)..1304 mms in 1973 and the lowest annual rainfall has been in the same Jaisalmer district at Ramgarh .. 2 mms( u read it correct) in 1969 !!
The state is prone to extreme rainfall spells ..In the Thar desert , Barmer had recorded 312 mms on 8 Aug 1990 and 300 mms at Bilara on 31 July 1999..
Lunglei district, Mizoram - 1078mm in July and Saiha district, Mizoram - 0mm in July?? How did that happen?
Just did some calculations.. North West India, Central India and East & North East India all had higher than normal rainfall in July. However, Southern peninsula was 36% below normal for the month of July.
In fact, in the southern peninsula only Coastal AP and A&N Islands had anywhere close to normal rains in July. The remaining area encompassing Telangana, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala (with an area of more than 540,000 sq km) had a deficit of more than 40% in July.
Other swathes that received less rainfall in July - Marathwada and Vidarbha in Central India; West UP, Haryana, Punjab and HP in North West India and Arunachal, Assam, Meghalaya, Sikkim and SHWB in North East India.
Areas receiving excess rainfall in July - State of Gujarat in Central India; State of Rajasthan in North West India and Jharkhand and Gangetic WB in East India.
Evewrest- even Konkan goa/Mumbai region received good rainfall in July
Rajesh sir, when will break monsoon conditions end in Mumbai?
Some rain in goregoan Mumbai last evening at 5.00 pm and 7.30 pm. No rain this morning.
Hard and Painstaking efforts GSB sir as ever- you release figures so quickly- Indeed this table gonna to be remembered for Rajashthan featuring in-
A short heavy shower ar 10:00 in Goregaon Mumbai
Actually for the whole of K&G, July rain was about 2% below normal. But within the region, I think the northern portion (Palghar, Thane and Raigarh districts) got excess rainfall, whereas south of Raigarh (Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg and Goa), it got progressively worse.
It would be interesting to see how the ghats faired all along the west coast. I think you would see a similar picture. Excess rainfall for northern Maha ghats, middle and southern Maha should be somewhere normal, but as we go south into Karnataka ghats and Wayanad and Idukki in Kerala, it just gets worse.
The rains have almost vanished from Mumbai , apart from the occasional sharp spells there has been no meaningful rains.With no systems near by its going to be sometime before we see anything.
Exactly Evewrest - 3/4th of southern India is in drought which is getting worse than 2016. Your observations are correct - hope Abhijitji may agree....
Panvel received 1105 mm of rainfall in July spanning 30 rainy days. The normal for Panvel during July is 1129 mm, hence the rainfall received was Normal.
The seasonal total for Panvel stands at 1998 mm till 8:30 am today
Sset you stated rains in Mumbai going to exceed Mangalore. As of now it appears like no big deluge over Mumbai. So how is it going to happen. Your desire and weather forecasting are two different things. Sset, you are just forecasting your desire and not weather.
I would wait for some time before I start using the term drought. My analysis was only for the month of July. June was not bad for South Peninsula, although SIK was deficient in June. But there are 2 more months to go in the monsoon.
It's true that both the SM and NEM failed for southern peninsula last year. Which makes it critical for these areas to get decent rain this time around. However, we would really have to look at least 10-20 yrs of data before we can start saying anything about desertification.
But surely there are other areas in the country which face chronic shortage of rainfall. Marathwada is a prime example. It seems to be easy for the NW plains belt of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, West UP to be deficient during the monsoon period. I have just looked at the past 5 yrs data. Maybe it was different earlier. I think there has been some study done by IMD on the long term trends in rainfall for all the subdivisions in the country. It would be interesting to have a read.
While making this analysis post, TN & PDC subdivision was -21% in deficit but in last 2 days due to good rains over it now Tamilnadu comes in normal category with just -1% of deviation
On other hand half Maharashtra in drought like situation as Marathwada(-24%) & Vidarbha(-22%) sub division slips into deficit zone !!
Water situation grim in those region as many dams on minimum level even after of 2 months of monsoon has passed away ! Nagpur region having just 19 % water availability & Amaravati region having only 22% water storage as on today !!
Due to June good pre SWM rain in Marthawada & Vidarbha was showing normal category but now no rain for month so has slipped in deficit statistically also !
http://www.huffingtonpost.in/village-square/maharashtra-farmers-fear-loss-of-kharif-harvest-blame-met-depar_a_23041487/
Rajesh Sir what are the weekend forecaste for Mumbai and outer mumbai
I pray september should perform better for maharashtra ...
As monsoon starts withdrawing from raj....
I pray the lows from the bay should strike maharashtra n konkan ...
Tamhini ghat (located in northern ghats of Maharashtra..80 kms from Mumbai)..
Tamhini averages 6,498 mm during the monsoon(1975-2013) and on an average beats Cherrapunji 2 times in 10 years ..
Other monsoon (Jun-Sep ) averages.. Mawsynram (8,864mm) and Cherrapunji (8,633mm) in Northeast, and in the Western Ghat regions of Amboli (7,071mm) in Maharashtra and Agumbe (6,866mm) in Karnataka..
Western ghats on an average receive more rains than Cherrapunji 4 out of 10 SW Monsoons..
Out of that Maharashtra ghats receive more 2 out of 10 and Karnataka/ Kerala ghats 2 out of 10 ..
Nice statistics Rohit .
Abhijit and Rohit some really interesting facts and figures pouring in from both of you enriching knowledge of readers of this blog
Rajesh Sir - waiting for your forecast as rain has fully dried up in and around Mumbai area.
When can we expect the next wave of heavy rains.
As per gfs rain increasing in Mumbai on 9th and 10th. Then again a week of dry spell. BTW today is totally dry. The 3 min burst missing today.
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