Monday, July 03, 2017

Posted on Tuesday Night:

Estimate for Wednesday 5th July and Thursday 6th July:
1. Due to trough in the Northern Plains, Heavy rains likely on Wednesday and Thursday in U.P, Bihar, Sikkim and Sub Himalayan W.Bengal and NE States. 
Some places in S.I. Karnataka can receive heavy rains also. 
Expect showers in parts of Bangalore on Wednesday and Thursday evening.

All Estimates of 5th and 6th July:
2. Not much  rains in Saurashtra next 2 days. No meaningful increase in Marathwada and Vidharbh.
Very light isolated showers in parts of Ahmadabad. Almost dry. 
Not much rains in Indore.

3. Good chance of a thunder shower in Kolkata on Wednesday. Thursday will also see a heavy thunder shower.

4. Light to moderate showers in Delhi NCR next two days, rainfall 7-10 mms.

5. Mumbai: Wednesday will be cloudy with a few periods of sun . Some occasional showers. A few passing showers may be sharp and heavy. Around 15-20 mms expected. For Thursday, Mumbai may be cloudy with intermittent showers, may be accompanied by thunder. An occasional shower may be heavy. Around 25-30 mms expected.
Outer townships may be partly cloudy get showers which may not be persistent , some heavy and accompanied by thunder. Showers may show a bit of an increase in frequency on Thursday.

6. Karachi: Partly cloudy with light rains in parts of Karachi. (Next 2 days estimate). Almost dry weather in Sindh.


See Mumbai Page : Map of Stations crossing 100 cms in Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Compiled by Vagarian Tejas from Data provided by Vagarian Abhijit Modak.


GSB said...

Great job Abhijit...perfect correlation between latitude and rainfall except one station and Thane which you always said benefits from both coastal and mainland systems...waiting for 150 cm and 200 cms chart for Maharashtra..

Perfect maps as usual Tejas..!!

GSB said...

Abhijit and our new member Abhishek doing a marvellous job collating data from different stations for Tejas to put up on the map..I witness their frenzied behaviour on WA group every morning from 8.30 onwards...!!!

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 4 July 2017

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up, ENSO Outlook and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

 Tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO neutral

The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral. Most climate models indicate the Pacific is likely to remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of 2017. This means the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is currently INACTIVE, with neither El Niño nor La Niña expected to influence Australia’s climate this year.

Although the tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than usual, this warmth is within the ENSO neutral range. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has recently been negative due to higher than normal atmospheric pressure in the Australian region, but all other ENSO indicators are at neutral levels.

In the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also neutral, with no sign of either negative or positive IOD present in the ocean or atmosphere. However, some climate models suggest a positive IOD could develop in the coming months. Positive IOD events are typically associated with below average winter and spring rainfall over central and southern Australia.
 ENSO Outlook

Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood
of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

The status is INACTIVE.

Next update expected on 18 July 2017

Deepak said...

Rain forecaste for Mumbai in Comming days Rajesh sir

Abhijit Modak said...

Thanks GSB Sir. Yes from few years collecting rain data has become hobby and Tejas support from bringing mine text format data in graphical map format has made data look to more attractive .Also thanks to Abhishek as an new entrant he is taking energy of blog to next level with his supporting hands always :) Thanks to all Vagarians

Cumulus arjun said...

Because of the decrease of the rains in Mumbai from past 2-3 days, mumbai is slowly creeping on the deficit range, sir when do you expect the rains to again increase in Mumbai?

Deepak said...

Sir when do we get the July MUMBAI rain

Unknown said...

Yeah seems like no meaningful rain for a week!

sset said...

3 years of monsoon failure over KAR - implies huge change in climate pattern + environment destruction. Soon TN, AP, KER will follow.

sset said...

Torrential downpours over Navi Mumbai...

Sunny said...

Looks like delhi will see dry weather in july .....

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